Florida's economy reached $1.85 trillion in Q3 2025, ranking first among all 50 states and the District of Columbia in economic growth. This fourth installment of Florida TaxWatch's quarterly economic forecast series — produced in partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group — examines whether that momentum is sustainable through 2035.

Manufacturing is one of Florida’s leading industries and a key driver of job growth and economic strength, contributing more than $80 billion to Florida’s annual GDP. With more than 27,000 manufacturers—most of them small businesses with fewer than 20 employees—Florida’s manufacturing sector supports more than 430,000 high-wage jobs, with average salaries exceeding $78,000.

Florida’s economy—valued at $1.76 trillion in Q1 2025—entered the year with strong momentum, but this Q3 2025 Florida TaxWatch forecast projects a return toward more “normal,” pre-pandemic growth rates over the next several years. While Florida’s population is still expected to climb to roughly 25.9 million by 2034, net migration is projected to cool as higher costs (housing, insurance, taxes) and other pressures weigh on in-migration.

NSU generated an estimated $293.1 million in state and local taxes within the Tri-County region in FY 2024-25 and an estimated $305.1 million in state and local taxes in FY 2024-25.

Since January 2025, the federal interest rate has remained unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The rates have been steady in hopes of curbing inflation and bringing it down to two percent, as unemployment numbers were not concerning until now. The latest revision data, however, will likely push the Federal Reserve to cut rates in their next meeting this month to 4.00 to 4.25 percent.

Florida's economy, valued at $1.76 trillion, entered 2025 on a strong footing but is projected to see its growth moderate to pre-pandemic levels over the next decade. This forecast from Florida TaxWatch indicates a shift from the high growth of recent years to a more sustainable, albeit slower, pace. While the state's population is expected to increase by 2.3 million by 2034, the rate of new residents moving to Florida is projected to decline, influenced by rising living costs.

The impact of childcare, as the data suggest, is prominent on Florida’s economy. Losses incurred from turnover and absenteeism of working parents can be avoided with friendlier workplace policies and higher investment in affordable childcare. As an important part of the industry, treating childcare workers better financially can help maintain the workforce in childcare and add to the economy of Florida. Impactful measures that can alleviate the pressing childcare issues mentioned can further grow Florida’s economy.

Florida's economy has been growing to new heights these past years -- reaching nearly $1.5 trillion. The Q1 2025 economic forecast by Florida TaxWatch examines key trends in population growth, employment, income, GDP, and tourism, offering valuable insights for policymakers, business leaders, and taxpayers.

St. Thomas University (STU) plays a large role in Florida’s economy, fostering workforce development and economic mobility, particularly for underrepresented communities. This Florida TaxWatch ROI report evaluates STU’s impact, highlighting its contributions to job creation, income growth, and return on investment. With record-breaking enrollment, a diverse student body, and strong financial stability, STU generates over $1.5 billion in economic output and supports more than 8,500 jobs. Every $1 spent on STU results in $21.50 of economic output.

Florida's citrus industry has declined by 90% over the past two decades due to citrus greening, hurricanes, and economic challenges. The report calls for innovative solutions, strategic investments, and support to sustain this vital industry, which is crucial to Florida's economy and heritage.

The Florida TaxWatch Institute on Quality Health and Aging presents its latest report on the connection between education and health outcomes. This study, part of a series on Social Determinants of Health, reveals how higher education levels correlate with better health, longer lifespans, and reduced healthcare costs. The report explores the economic impact of education on public health and state budgets, emphasizing the importance of early childhood education. It offers valuable insights for policymakers, healthcare professionals, and educators, aiming to guide policies that improve health outcomes and economic prosperity for all Floridians. Download the full report to learn how investing in education can significantly impact Florida's public health and economic future.

Florida faces a critical teacher shortage, ranking 50th in teacher pay nationwide. Our briefing reveals alarming trends: 10% of courses lack properly certified teachers, and teacher pay has dropped 15.7% in real terms over the past decade. With Florida needing 9.7% more teachers by 2031, the state's educational future hangs in the balance. Our comprehensive report explores the root causes of this crisis, from inadequate compensation to mounting stress, and examines recent policy actions. More importantly, it offers concrete solutions to attract and retain quality educators.