Executive Summary
Florida’s economy—valued at $1.76 trillion in Q1 2025—entered the year with strong momentum, but this Q3 2025 Florida TaxWatch forecast projects a return toward more “normal,” pre-pandemic growth rates over the next several years. While Florida’s population is still expected to climb to roughly 25.9 million by 2034, net migration is projected to cool as higher costs (housing, insurance, taxes) and other pressures weigh on in-migration.
Key Forecast Highlights (2025-2034):
- Population Keeps Rising, Migration Slows: Population is projected to increase by about 2.4 million (about 23.5M to 25.9M) by 2034, but daily net migration is projected to fall from 922 per day (2025) to 702 per day (2034).
- Employment Grows, But More Slowly: Total employment is projected to increase from about 10.0 million (2025) to about 10.8 million (2034), reflecting continued job growth at a more moderate pace.
- Unemployment Rises Before Easing: The unemployment rate is projected to move from 4.0% (2025) up to 4.5% in 2026–2027, then gradually settle around 4.1% by 2034.
- Real GDP Growth Normalizes: Real GDP growth is projected at 2.3% in 2026 and is expected to cool to about 1.9% by 2034—consistent with a slower, steadier expansion.
- Income Growth: Up, Then Levels Off: Income growth is projected to rise to about 5.1% through 2028, then hover near 4.9% through 2034—suggesting growing spending capacity, but not at the breakneck pace of recent years.
- Tourism: Short-Term Soft Patch, Then Modest Growth: After 2024’s record visitation, visitor growth is projected to be just 0.8% in 2025, strengthen through 2027, and then taper—pointing to a longer-run “reversion” toward pre-pandemic tourism growth rates.
Bottom line: Florida is still growing—but the forecast expects the state to shift from the post-pandemic sprint to a more sustainable jog, shaped by easing (but still present) economic uncertainty and a cooling pace of in-migration.