Florida Economic Forecast: 2025-2034

Q3 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida’s economy—valued at $1.76 trillion in Q1 2025—entered the year with strong momentum, but this Q3 2025 Florida TaxWatch forecast projects a return toward more “normal,” pre-pandemic growth rates over the next several years. While Florida’s population is still expected to climb to roughly 25.9 million by 2034, net migration is projected to cool as higher costs (housing, insurance, taxes) and other pressures weigh on in-migration.

Florida Economic Forecast 2025 - 2034

Q2 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida's economy, valued at $1.76 trillion, entered 2025 on a strong footing but is projected to see its growth moderate to pre-pandemic levels over the next decade. This forecast from Florida TaxWatch indicates a shift from the high growth of recent years to a more sustainable, albeit slower, pace. While the state's population is expected to increase by 2.3 million by 2034, the rate of new residents moving to Florida is projected to decline, influenced by rising living costs.

Despite Uncertainty and Significant Downside Risk, Florida’s New General Revenue Forecast Adds $1.3 Billion to the Money Available for the New Budget

Budget Watch | March 2025

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps

Florida TaxWatch’s Budget Watch report for March 2025 examines the state’s updated General Revenue forecast, which adds approximately $1.3 billion to the money available for the new state budget. After a long streak of collections exceeding estimates, January’s shortfall signals a shift amid mounting economic uncertainty.

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Florida Manufacturing: A Highly Productive and Integral Economic Driver

Florida Manufacturing: A Highly Productive and Integral Economic Driver

Florida's manufacturing sector is a $86.6 billion industry that ranks sixth in the nation in the value of exported manufactured goods, employs more than 434,000 workers, and contributes 4.62 percent of the state's GDP — quietly outpacing both tourism and agriculture. Anchored by aerospace, defense, and space manufacturing firms along the Space Coast corridor, including global names like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, SpaceX, and Raytheon, the industry also produces medical devices, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage products, and recreational boats. The sector offers high wages with low educational barriers: eleven of the fifteen largest manufacturing occupations require only a high school diploma or equivalent, with an average annual salary of $87,000. Modernized working conditions — built around computer-based tasks and precision environments — have made manufacturing jobs increasingly comparable to traditional white-collar work.

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