Florida Economic Forecast 2025 - 2035

Q4 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida's economy reached $1.85 trillion in Q3 2025, ranking first among all 50 states and the District of Columbia in economic growth. This fourth installment of Florida TaxWatch's quarterly economic forecast series — produced in partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group — examines whether that momentum is sustainable through 2035.

Florida Economic Forecast: 2025-2034

Q3 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida’s economy—valued at $1.76 trillion in Q1 2025—entered the year with strong momentum, but this Q3 2025 Florida TaxWatch forecast projects a return toward more “normal,” pre-pandemic growth rates over the next several years. While Florida’s population is still expected to climb to roughly 25.9 million by 2034, net migration is projected to cool as higher costs (housing, insurance, taxes) and other pressures weigh on in-migration.

New Labor Data Shows Weaker Labor Market Than Previously Expected

/ Categories: Research, Workforce Development, Blog

Since January 2025, the federal interest rate has remained unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The rates have been steady in hopes of curbing inflation and bringing it down to two percent, as unemployment numbers were not concerning until now. The latest revision data, however, will likely push the Federal Reserve to cut rates in their next meeting this month to 4.00 to 4.25 percent.

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Florida TaxWatch Provides Analysis of the Governor’s Property Tax Amendment and Legislation, Recommends Florida Taxation and Budget Reform Commission Lead Debate

Florida TaxWatch Provides Analysis of the Governor’s Property Tax Amendment and Legislation, Recommends Florida Taxation and Budget Reform Commission Lead Debate

The Florida Legislature is meeting in special session to consider Governor DeSantis’ proposed constitutional amendment and linked legislation to provide significant property tax relief to Florida homeowners. The proposal has many provisions, but the main ones would increase the homestead exemption to $150,000, beginning January 1, 2027, and then increase it to $250,000, beginning January 1, 2028. This exemption will apply to all property taxes. In addition, the cap on the annual increase in the assessment of non-homestead properties would be reduced from 10% to 5%, but this change would not apply to school property tax levies. Any property taxes remaining after the changes would be restricted to being used solely for core services such as public safety, education, infrastructure, debt, and retirement benefits.

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