Executive Summary
Florida's economy reached $1.85 trillion in Q3 2025, ranking first among all 50 states and the District of Columbia in economic growth. This fourth installment of Florida TaxWatch's quarterly economic forecast series — produced in partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group — examines whether that momentum is sustainable through 2035.
The short answer: yes, but at a slower pace. Florida's population is projected to grow from 23.4 million to 26 million by 2035, though daily net migration is expected to decline from 922 new residents to 689 as rising housing costs, insurance premiums, and cost-of-living pressures push more Floridians to reconsider staying. Employment is expected to climb from 10.1 million to 11.5 million workers, with the unemployment rate peaking at 4.4 percent through 2027 before gradually returning to 4.0 percent by 2035.
Florida's real GDP growth is projected at 2.7 percent in 2026, outpacing the national rate through 2030 before settling near 1.9 percent. Income growth is forecast to peak at 6.26 percent in 2027 — nearly a full percentage point above national projections — reflecting stronger long-term wage growth tied to Florida's continued economic expansion. Tourism remains a foundational pillar: visitor totals are projected to grow from 143.6 million in 2025 to nearly 198.3 million by 2035, sustaining a long-term growth rate of approximately 3.5 percent annually.
Key Takeaways
- Growth continues, but normalizes: Florida is transitioning back to pre-pandemic growth rates as inflation and interest rate conditions stabilize — still strong relative to the nation, but no longer at post-pandemic highs.
- Population growth is slowing: Net migration is declining as housing costs and cost-of-living pressures increasingly offset Florida's traditional advantages — no income tax, natural amenities, and warm climate.
- Employment outlook is improving: The 10-year job growth projection nearly doubled from the Q3 forecast, signaling a strengthening labor market in the near term.
- Income growth outpaces the nation: Florida's per capita income growth is forecast to average nearly a full percentage point above national expectations, reflecting the state's ongoing economic prosperity.
- Tourism drives long-term stability: With $134.9 billion in visitor spending recorded in 2024 and steady projected growth, tourism continues to underwrite Florida's fiscal health — saving each household an estimated $1,730 annually on state and local taxes.
Florida's economic outlook remains positive, with the state positioned to grow faster than the national average through 2030. The key variables to watch — migration trends, housing affordability, unemployment, and consumer confidence — will determine whether Florida sustains its competitive edge or begins to mirror the growing pains it once left behind.