FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Friday, March 20, 2026
CONTACT: Christina Johnson
Tallahassee, Fla. – Today, Florida TaxWatch released its report, Florida Economic Forecast: 2025 – 2035 / Q4 2025.The data upon which these forecasts are based are provided through a partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group (REC Group), a research-based consulting firm that provides economic studies to help guide and inform business leaders and policymakers.
Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Jeff Kottkamp said, “Fueled by a strong global presence in tourism, trade, and real estate development, Florida’s economy has grown to $1.85 trillion in Q3 of 2025. Overall, Florida’s economy is now set to return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next five years, after experiencing high economic growth in the past three years.
“This forecast continues to show the growth of Florida, but at a much slower rate than the previous forecasts. This can be, in part, due to economic uncertainty in the nation, as well as a lower level of consumer confidence in the economy. The slight improvements in the short-term outlook of key indicators compared to the Q3 forecast show reasons for optimism when considering Florida’s economy.
“The number of new jobs available in Florida is projected to increase until 2027 before decreasing again. The biggest question to be answered is whether Florida’s impressive economic growth is sustainable over the next several years, which is why Florida TaxWatch continues to aggressively monitor these numbers and provide each quarter this invaluable economic forecast.”
The key takeaways from this Q4 2025 report include the following outliers.
Population and Net Migration: Florida’s population is projected to increase by about 2.6 million people (from 23.4 million to 26 million) from 2025 to 2035. Although the state’s overall population is projected to continue to increase, the number of new people moving to Florida (after subtracting those moving out of Florida) each day is projected to decrease from 922 in 2025 to 689 in 2035. As Florida’s net migration decreases from 922 new residents each day to 895 over the next year, the population will continue to increase, but at a decreasing rate.
Recently, an increasing number of Floridians are leaving the state, often citing increased costs of living, rising property taxes, rising property and automobile insurance, rising housing costs, and more frequent and severe weather events as reasons for leaving. Top destinations for those leaving Florida are either states with no personal income tax (e.g., Tennessee, Texas) or a lower cost of living than Florida (e.g., Georgia, North Carolina). Despite these concerns, Florida will likely continue to be one of the fastest growing states as other attractive destinations begin to run into the same growing pains
Employment: The number of employed Floridians is projected to increase from 10.1 million in 2025 to 11.5 million in 2035. During this same period, Florida’s unemployment rate is projected to increase from 3.9 percent in 2025 to 4.4 percent until 2027, before decreasing slowly back to 4.0 percent by 2035. Like the 2025 Q3 forecast – this forecast shows an increase in the unemployment rate until 2027 and then a gradual decrease until 2035. The projected unemployment rate for the next 10 years as of Q4 2025 is 0.1 percentage point lower than reported in Q3 2025.
GDP and Income Growth: Florida is expected to have a real GDP growth rate of 2.7 percent in 2026, which is projected to decrease to 1.9 percent by 2035. Comparing the difference in the growth rate of Florida’s GDP and real GDP, one can see that the difference is slightly closing in the long run. This suggests that the rate of inflation is expected to slightly decrease in the coming years, although this is largely subject to change with interest rate fluctuations during this time.
Tourism: In 2024, Florida had a record number of visitors to the state – totaling more than 142.9 million and spending a record $134.9 billion. Tourism directly supports 1.8 million jobs and is responsible for $79.9 billion in employee wages. Thanks to tourism and the revenue tourism generates, every Florida household saves $1,730 a year on state and local taxes.
Growth in tourism is projected to slow down this year – with a growth rate of 0.5 percent. The growth rate of visitors is projected to increase until 2027 before stabilizing at the elevated level. Compared to the Q3 2025 forecast, this forecast shows improvement in the state’s tourism industry.
Florida Economy vs U.S Economy: Florida’s economy is expected to grow at around the same rate as the U.S. economy in most aspects. The U.S. economy averaged a real GDP growth rate of 2.2 percent in 2025 and projected to stay at this level through 2026 before dropping and maintaining a constant 2.0 percent growth rate. Florida’s real GDP growth rate is forecasted to be higher than the national rate through 2030. Additionally, Florida’s unemployment rate remained below the national rate in 2025, as while the U.S. averaged 4.2 percent, Florida averaged 3.9 percent. Both are expected to average around the 4.2 percent mark for the next five years, although the U.S. rate is expected to vary more within this time.
To learn more and access the full report, including Florida TaxWatch’s previous Economic Forecasts, please click here.
About Florida TaxWatch
As an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit government watchdog and taxpayer research institute, and the trusted “eyes and ears” of Florida taxpayers for more than 45 years, Florida TaxWatch (FTW) works to improve the productivity and accountability of Florida government. Its research recommends productivity enhancements and explains the statewide impact of fiscal and economic policies and practices on taxpayers and businesses. FTW is supported by its membership via voluntary, tax-deductible donations and private grants. Donations provide a solid, lasting foundation that has enabled FTW to bring about a more effective, responsive government that is more accountable to, and productive for, the taxpayers it has served since 1979. For more information, please visit www.floridataxwatch.org.
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