Tallahassee, Fla. – Today, Florida TaxWatch released its Florida Economic Forecast: 2026 – 2035 / Q1 2026. The data upon which these forecasts are based are provided through a partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group (REC Group), a research-based consulting firm that provides economic studies to help guide and inform business leaders and policymakers.
Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Jeff Kottkamp said, “Fueled by a strong global presence in tourism, trade, and real estate development, Florida’s economy has grown to $1.87 trillion in 2025. In fact, if Florida was a country, its economic output would be the 13th largest in the world, bigger than that of South Korea and Australia.
“Since Florida TaxWatch’s first forecast in Q1 2025, we had predicted that 2026 would serve as a break from this growth in almost all macroeconomic indicators. The state ended 2025 with strong growth trends, ranking number one among the 50 states and District of Columbia for business startups.
“Florida’s economy is now set to return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next five years, after experiencing high economic growth in the past three years. Overall, Florida’s economic outlook, while hampered by current global events, still reflects some of the signs for optimism it gleamed at the end of 2025.
“While Florida entered 2025 with strong growth trends, ranking number one in terms of economic strength, Florida TaxWatch continues to question whether Florida’s impressive rate of economic growth is sustainable over the next several years.”
Florida’s resiliency in economic output and as a destination for business and residency outpaces much of the rest of the nation, reflected in its stubborn GDP and population growth. GDP growth, while taking a hit next year, is expected to stay strong and greatly outpace the rest of the nation through 2030; however, the labor market is expected to take a hit, reflected in the changes to the unemployment and income growth rate.
Truly, nobody knows for certain what is going to happen next with the Strait of Hormuz, easily the largest factor in this current forecast and the state of future ones this year. In these times of great uncertainty, it is best to anchor ourselves with what we know; Florida has been and will continue to be a bastion of opportunity and innovation for the rest of the nation. It has done so in times worse and shows no reason why it will not be the case here.
The key takeaways from this Q1 report include the following outliers.
Population and Net Migration: The state’s population growth is the one metric that seems to be unaffected by recent global events, with forecasts identical between the previous release and this one. Moreover, Florida’s population is expected to increase by about 2.3 million people from 2026 to 2035. Although the state’s overall population is projected to continue to increase, fewer people are expected to move to Florida each year through 2035. In 2026, 895 more people are expected to move into Florida than out each day, although by 2035 this number is expected to fall to 689 people.
While decreasing over the next ten years, these daily migration trends are still a positive sign considering the drops in other metrics and Florida’s previously high population growth. From 2022 to 2023, Florida had the second highest population growth from interstate migration in the nation, growth that quickly pushed it towards capacity. Expecting the same number of people to come in between forecasts, despite major shake-ups to budgets and business activity in the past few months, shows just how attractive Florida is as a place to live. This can be attributed to its previously stated business startup ranking, no personal income tax, beautiful weather, and other amenities that benefit businesses and residents alike.
Labor Market: The number of total employed Floridians is expected to increase from 10.1 million in 2026 to 11.3 million people in 2035, an increase of 1.2 million people; however, the unemployment rate itself is expected to vary a lot during this time. It’s expected to continue to increase through 2028, peaking at 4.8 percent, before dropping and stabilizing around 4.2 percent for the first half of the 2030s.
The most notable is the average unemployment rate over the ten-year period, which has risen from 4.17 percent to 4.33 percent between reports. This likely comes as a result of the expectations for business slowdown in the face of rising costs, which leads to higher unemployment. The other notable point is that the peak of unemployment concerns has shifted where, instead of plateauing in 2027, it is expected to further increase to the ten-year maximum.
GDP and Income Growth: Florida’s real GDP growth is expected to be 2.5 percent in 2026 before dipping to 1.9 percent in 2027; however, from here we see consistent output: growth immediately rebounds to 2.9 percent in 2028 and stays slightly above three percent for the rest of the period. PCPI shows similar output, expected to increase across the entire ten-year period from around $88,000 to $126,300, an average of five percent year over year. It should be kept in mind that this does not control for inflation, so actual purchasing power is still expected to increase but at a lower rate.
Tourism:
Tourism expectations were by far the indicator impacted the most between reports. While the total number of visitors each year is still expected to grow year after year, the projected amount by which it grows has been reduced. This was to be expected, as energy costs are a major input to transportation and tourism activities and will eventually be passed over to consumers, limiting what they can do with their budget. Unfortunately, the magnitude is sobering. Tourism growth expectations have shrunk by an average of 45.3 percent over the ten-year period, more than quadrupling the next closest indicator. Figures show how these changes vary year by year, cratering to a decade-low growth rate of 0.8 percent in 2027 before stabilizing around two percent by 2028.
To learn more and access the full report, please click here.
About Florida TaxWatch
As an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit government watchdog and taxpayer research institute, and the trusted “eyes and ears” of Florida taxpayers for more than 47 years, Florida TaxWatch (FTW) works to improve the productivity and accountability of Florida government. Its research recommends productivity enhancements and explains the statewide impact of fiscal and economic policies and practices on taxpayers and businesses. FTW is supported by its membership via voluntary, tax-deductible donations and private grants. Donations provide a solid, lasting foundation that has enabled FTW to bring about a more effective, responsive government that is more accountable to, and productive for, the taxpayers it has served since 1979. For more information, please visit www.floridataxwatch.org.
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