Florida Economic Forecast: Q1 2025

2024-2030

Florida Economic Forecast Report Cover

Florida's economy has been growing to new heights these past years—reaching nearly $1.5 trillion. The Q1 2025 economic forecast by Florida TaxWatch examines key trends in population growth, employment, income, GDP, and tourism, offering valuable insights for policymakers, business leaders, and taxpayers.

Key Highlights:

  • Population & Net Migration:
    • Florida’s population is projected to grow by 1.4 million between 2025 and 2030.
    • Daily net migration slows from 972 new residents in 2024 to 789 by 2030.
    • Rising costs of living, insurance, and weather concerns are some of the reasons driving people to leave the state.
  • Jobs & Economy:
    • Employment is expected to rise from 10 million to 10.9 million by 2030.
    • Unemployment rate increases slightly, peaking at 4.5% in 2027 before falling again.
    • Real GDP growth slows from 3.6% in 2024 to 2.1% by 2030.
    • Personal income per capita peaks at 5.0% growth in 2027, before decreasing to 4.3% by 2030.
  • Tourism:
    • Florida welcomed a record 142.9 million visitors in 2024, the third consecutive year with record numbers.
    • A study shows that tourism supports 2.1 million jobs and saves each household $1,910 annually in state and local taxes.
    • Visitor growth rate is expected to dip in 2025 down to 0.3%, with an expected zero percent growth in 2027, before gradually rising again at low rates.
  • Florida vs. U.S. Economy:
    • Florida’s unemployment rate remains consistently below the national average.
    • Personal income growth in Florida is projected to surpass the U.S. average from 2027 onward.
    • The state's economic growth trends closely align with national patterns, showing an overall steady performance.

Meet the Author:

Jui Shah
Jui Shah
Research Economist
LinkedIn

Documents to download

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Florida Manufacturing: A Highly Productive and Integral Economic Driver

Florida Manufacturing: A Highly Productive and Integral Economic Driver

Florida's manufacturing sector is a $86.6 billion industry that ranks sixth in the nation in the value of exported manufactured goods, employs more than 434,000 workers, and contributes 4.62 percent of the state's GDP — quietly outpacing both tourism and agriculture. Anchored by aerospace, defense, and space manufacturing firms along the Space Coast corridor, including global names like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, SpaceX, and Raytheon, the industry also produces medical devices, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage products, and recreational boats. The sector offers high wages with low educational barriers: eleven of the fifteen largest manufacturing occupations require only a high school diploma or equivalent, with an average annual salary of $87,000. Modernized working conditions — built around computer-based tasks and precision environments — have made manufacturing jobs increasingly comparable to traditional white-collar work.

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