The Census Undercount’s Toll on Florida Roads

In 2020, Florida was one of six states with a statistically significant census undercount. Florida failed to count 3.48 percent of its total population (750,000 residents). The census count is used to apportion legislative seats and allocate federal funding. Florida’s census undercount cost the state at least one—potentially two—congressional seats and up to $21 billion in federal funding through the end of the decade.

In 2021, Florida TaxWatch launched the Florida TaxWatch Census Institute to support complete participation in the 2030 decennial census. By dedicating thoughtful research and amplifying the voice of impacted business leaders, the Institute develops tools to spread awareness and educate Floridians on the importance of completing census surveys. Throughout the decade leading up to the 2030 decennial census, the research will be shared with business and community leaders to facilitate policy conversations and promote the need for local action.

The Florida TaxWatch Census Institute releases four research products each year—in the form of op-eds, reports, and videos—to examine how the census undercount affects Florida’s businesses and community leaders. The Census Undercount’s Toll on Florida Roads explores the effects of the census undercount on the transportation industry, with a focus on how it impacts infrastructure planning and federal funding allocations.

To determine infrastructure needs, many state transportation departments use Census Transportation Planning Products (CTPP). These data products use census data to project population sizes; perform environmental justice and equity analysis; examine household lifecycles; analyze demography; generate vehicle ownership models; and conduct travel-demand model validation. The census undercount threatens the accuracy of these data products.

An analysis conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau identified 15 federal funding programs, administered by the U.S. Department of Transportation, that utilize census data to define recipient eligibility requirements, as a variable in funding formulas, or as a component in selection criteria. Altogether, these programs determine $92.5 billion worth of transportation funding.

Chosen based on the availability of public data, Florida TaxWatch reviewed two grants—the Surface Transportation Block Grant (STBG) and the Urbanized Area Formula Grant—to illustrate the effects of the census undercount. Both grants use the population category of urban zone areas (UZAs) to make funding decisions. From 2024 through 2034, the categorization of UZAs is based on the 2020 Census. An analysis of census undercount data suggests that the Port Charlotte–North Port UZA would have been categorized in a different funding category if its population was more accurately counted, affecting its funding category for both grants. Additionally, the Urbanized Formula Grant uses population size and density within its funding formulas, affecting not only Port Charlotte–North Port but also any discrepancies in count experienced by any of the UZAs.

A complete census count is needed to ensure the state accurately develops transportation infrastructure to match growing needs and receives the right level of federal funding for each UZA. To support a more complete census count, Floridians should stay up to date on census-related issues, act as trusted messengers to peers, and support awareness campaigns. To learn more about the Florida TaxWatch Census Institute, please visit https://floridataxwatch.org/Programs/Census-Institute.