New Labor Data Shows Weaker Labor Market Than Previously Expected

/ Categories: Research, Workforce Development, Blog

Since January 2025, the federal interest rate has remained unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The rates have been steady in hopes of curbing inflation and bringing it down to two percent, as unemployment numbers were not concerning until now. The latest revision data, however, will likely push the Federal Reserve to cut rates in their next meeting this month to 4.00 to 4.25 percent.

Interdisciplinary Pain Management As a Means to Help Address Solvency of the State Employees' Health Insurance Trust Fund

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Health Care, Insurance

With the Trust Fund projected to face a nearly $1.7 billion shortfall by FY 2029-30 without action, Florida TaxWatch outlines a pragmatic path that reduces costs by treating pain more effectively—not just shifting them to employees.

Florida Economic Forecast 2025 - 2034

Q2 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida's economy, valued at $1.76 trillion, entered 2025 on a strong footing but is projected to see its growth moderate to pre-pandemic levels over the next decade. This forecast from Florida TaxWatch indicates a shift from the high growth of recent years to a more sustainable, albeit slower, pace. While the state's population is expected to increase by 2.3 million by 2034, the rate of new residents moving to Florida is projected to decline, influenced by rising living costs.

Options to Eliminate or Reduce the Property Tax Burden on Florida Homeowners

/ Categories: Research, Education, Housing Affordability, Taxes, Local Government

Florida's property tax system is at a critical juncture, with total levies surging by 108% over the last decade, far exceeding the combined rate of population growth and inflation. This rapid increase, generating $55 billion in 2024 for local governments, has intensified the financial strain on homeowners and raised fundamental questions about the nature of property ownership, which currently resembles a form of "perpetual rent" to the government. This report from Florida TaxWatch analyzes the current landscape and explores five distinct options for reform, ranging from the complete elimination of property taxes for homeowners to more immediate statutory changes aimed at increasing transparency and accountability.

Trends in the Cost of Construction Materials

/ Categories: Research, Manufacturing, Public Infrastructure & Utilities

Construction is a cornerstone of Florida's economy, contributing $97 billion (5.7 percent) to the state's GDP in 2024. However, rising material costs are presenting significant challenges to the industry, impacting everything from large-scale infrastructure projects to residential home building and affordability for Florida taxpayers. This report from Florida TaxWatch examines the national and statewide trends driving these price increases and their potential consequences.

The Taxpayer's Guide to Florida's FY2025-26 State Budget

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Taxpayer Guide

Florida TaxWatch’s The Taxpayers’ Guide to Florida’s FY2025-26 State Budget explains the Legislature’s $114.8 billion spending plan (after $376 million in line-item vetoes)—a 3.2% decrease from FY2024-25—while maintaining $12.6 billion in reserves. General Revenue (GR) spending rises by $556 million, and the recurring GR base increases by $1.9 billion, even as total positions fall to 111,886 (-1,871).

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals

/ Categories: Research, Census Institute, Census, Federal Government

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals explains how Florida’s 2020 Census undercount—about 750,000 residents (3.48%)—reduced the state’s political representation and likely cost billions of dollars in federal funding over the decade. The report examines what Florida stood to gain if the count had been accurate and how proposed changes to who is counted could affect future apportionment.

Government Efficiency Should Not Be Something We Do Every Four Years

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Cost Savings, Local Government

Florida has proven ideas, demonstrated wins, and active tools; now it needs permanence. By embedding efficiency into the annual budget cycle—backed by transparent tracking and regular reporting—the state can convert sporadic initiatives into sustained savings and better service delivery for taxpayers.

2025 Principal Leadership Awards Roundtable Summary

/ Categories: Research, Education, Workforce Development

Principals are second only to teachers in their impact on student learning—and in Florida’s highest-need schools, effective leadership is the catalyst for outsize gains. Florida TaxWatch convened a roundtable on May 14, 2025 with the latest Principal Leadership Awards (PLA) winners to surface the strategies behind sustained improvement. Drawing on data-driven selection (FL-VAM) and firsthand practice, this summary distills what works and why it matters for schools serving predominantly at-risk students.

Update on the Implementation of the Live Local Act

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development, Housing Affordability

Florida continues to face a severe affordability gap in housing. In 2022, 35% of households were cost-burdened, and by 2024 the state was short more than 323,000 affordable units for households at 0–30% of Area Median Income (AMI). The Legislature’s 2023 Live Local Act—amended in 2024 and 2025—was designed to accelerate supply by combining incentives (notably property-tax exemptions) with strong preemption and streamlined approvals for qualifying projects. The law requires that at least 40% of units in eligible projects remain affordable for 30 years, and it allows multifamily development in commercial, industrial, or mixed-use zones without rezoning, subject to administrative review.

Hospice and Palliative Care

Florida is a National Leader Among the States Looked to for Best Practices in Compassionate Care

Florida's aging population is driving sustained demand for cost-effective, patient-centered care across the continuum. Palliative care—non-curative, interdisciplinary support for patients with serious but often nonterminal conditions—improves quality of life and can lower overall costs when introduced early in the disease course. Hospice provides end-of-life care once a clinician certifies a terminal prognosis; in Florida, hospice providers operate under a Certificate of Need (CON) program that authorizes new entrants only when unmet need is demonstrated through twice-yearly batching cycles.

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THE GOVERNOR’S FY 2022-23 BUDGET RECOMMENDATIONS

THE GOVERNOR’S FY 2022-23 BUDGET RECOMMENDATIONS

As the Florida TaxWatch Budget Watch series1 has been detailing, the budget outlook for the state is extremely rosy. Governor DeSantis’s 2022-23 budget recommendations reflect the current fiscal environment. It totals $99.7 billion and just like the current budget, the price tag does not fully account for all the spending it contains.

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2021 Annual Report

2021 Annual Report

The story of Florida TaxWatch in 2021 was one of taxpayer victories and a hand in the recovery of one of the world’s (14th if Florida were a country) biggest economies.

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We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to invest in Florida’s future

The 2022 legislative session begins today and, despite the pandemic, Florida is in an enviable fiscal position. The state’s current budget is record in size, as are our budget reserves. Revenue collections are back above pre-pandemic levels, and this Legislature will have even more money available for the next budget cycle, made possible by both strong economic performance and billions in unappropriated federal funds.

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The Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Education and Training Beyond High School in Florida

The Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Education and Training Beyond High School in Florida

An increasingly technological and information-driven economy generally requires higher levels of educational achievement for both individual and community success. To sustain continued economic growth and competitiveness, Florida must maintain a workforce with the types of skills— trade and professional—that can attract high-wage, high-value industries.

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WORKING PAPER: Where Are The Women?

WORKING PAPER: Where Are The Women?

This working paper is an endeavor to learn more about Florida’s labor force participation rate of women. Exploring reasons for women’s absence from the workforce can help Florida better understand the needs of its entire workforce. As a working paper, Florida TaxWatch hopes to start a discussion and encourage others to offer their insights about women’s absence from the workforce.

 

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Closing the Digital Divide-The Expansion of Broadband Internet Service to Unserved Areas of the State

Closing the Digital Divide-The Expansion of Broadband Internet Service to Unserved Areas of the State

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of access to reliable and affordable high-quality broadband Internet service to our daily lives. Communities that currently lack access to the affordable, reliable, high-quality broadband Internet that is necessary for full participation in education, health care, employment, social services and government programs, and civic life are at a marked disadvantage without that access. To help ensure that all Florida communities have access to reliable and affordable high-quality broadband Internet service Florida TaxWatch recommends the following:

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The Impacts of Lawsuits Against Local Governments for Business Damages

The Impacts of Lawsuits Against Local Governments for Business Damages

The 2022 Florida Legislature is debating two pieces of legislation that add to the process of passing local ordinances and provides additional rights to businesses and residents who wish to challenge those ordinances. This Session Spotlight takes a detailed look at SB620/CS/HB569 & CS/SB280/HB403.

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What Benefits Cliffs Teach Us About Incentives

Throughout the U.S. and in Florida, a variety of federal and state public programs exist to provide economic stabilization and promote economic self-sufficiency for low-income individuals and families with children. These public supports are often designed with specific income eligibility limits so that benefits phase out as an individual or family earns more. Although constructed to reduce reliance on public assistance over time while empowering families to move up the economic ladder, this program design can sometimes have the unintentional consequence of creating a “benefits cliff” that stifles upward mobility.

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Aging in Place—The Economic and Fiscal Value of Home and Community-Based Services

Aging in Place—The Economic and Fiscal Value of Home and Community-Based Services

Similar to demographic trends across the U.S., Florida will encounter a rapid increase in the number of elderly residents requiring long-term care and services. Florida’s 65 and older population is anticipated to grow by 52.1 percent over the next two decades from 4.4 to 6.7 million elderly residents. A variety of continuum of care options exists to accommodate the impending rise in long-term healthcare utilization, ranging from nursing homes to home and community-based settings. Not only do these options differ in their public costs and quality outcomes, but the COVID-19 pandemic has spotlighted the importance of physical risk and exposure to infection when considering what long-term settings exist. Due to the projected growth in Florida’s elderly population over the coming decades, it will be critical to expand resources across the state’s entire continuum of care.

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