Florida Economic Forecast 2025 - 2035

Q4 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida's economy reached $1.85 trillion in Q3 2025, ranking first among all 50 states and the District of Columbia in economic growth. This fourth installment of Florida TaxWatch's quarterly economic forecast series — produced in partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group — examines whether that momentum is sustainable through 2035.

Florida Economic Forecast: 2025-2034

Q3 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida’s economy—valued at $1.76 trillion in Q1 2025—entered the year with strong momentum, but this Q3 2025 Florida TaxWatch forecast projects a return toward more “normal,” pre-pandemic growth rates over the next several years. While Florida’s population is still expected to climb to roughly 25.9 million by 2034, net migration is projected to cool as higher costs (housing, insurance, taxes) and other pressures weigh on in-migration.

New Labor Data Shows Weaker Labor Market Than Previously Expected

/ Categories: Research, Workforce Development, Blog

Since January 2025, the federal interest rate has remained unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The rates have been steady in hopes of curbing inflation and bringing it down to two percent, as unemployment numbers were not concerning until now. The latest revision data, however, will likely push the Federal Reserve to cut rates in their next meeting this month to 4.00 to 4.25 percent.

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Cost of Living in Florida: A Mid-Decade Check-In

Cost of Living in Florida: A Mid-Decade Check-In

For millions of Floridians, the defining economic question of the mid-2020s isn't about growth or GDP — it's about whether they can still afford to stay.

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Tourism in Central Florida: Why Tourist Development Tax Revenue Should Not Be Diverted

Tourism in Central Florida: Why Tourist Development Tax Revenue Should Not Be Diverted

To remain competitive and sustain Florida’s share of the U.S. tourism market, Florida must continue to invest in tourism marketing and promotion to make sure that when tourists begin to plan their next vacation, they think first of Florida. Florida TaxWatch recommends the Legislature not approve any legislation that permits local governments divert the use of TDT-generated revenue from tourism marketing to support other activities.

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