LUCA Primer: The First Step In Preparing for the 2030 Census

LUCA Primer: The First Step in Preparing for the 2030 Census explains how Florida’s statistically significant undercount of approximately 750,000 residents in the 2020 Census cost the state an additional U.S. House seat, up to $21 billion in federal funds, and weakened the quality of the data that businesses and community leaders rely on for planning.

Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Florida Goodwill Association

FY 2024

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development, Workforce Development, ROI Study

Goodwill’s Economic and Workforce Impact in Florida: FY 2024 quantifies how the Florida Goodwill Association and its nine territories convert donated goods and mission-driven operations into jobs, higher earnings, and stronger local economies across the state. Using FY 2024 operational, employment, and capital spending data and the IMPLAN input-output model, Florida TaxWatch estimates that Goodwill generated $1.52 billion in total economic output, added $893.9 million to Florida’s GDP, and supported 21,471 jobs statewide.

New Labor Data Shows Weaker Labor Market Than Previously Expected

/ Categories: Research, Workforce Development, Blog

Since January 2025, the federal interest rate has remained unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The rates have been steady in hopes of curbing inflation and bringing it down to two percent, as unemployment numbers were not concerning until now. The latest revision data, however, will likely push the Federal Reserve to cut rates in their next meeting this month to 4.00 to 4.25 percent.

Interdisciplinary Pain Management As a Means to Help Address Solvency of the State Employees' Health Insurance Trust Fund

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Health Care, Insurance

Interdisciplinary Pain Management as a Means to Help Address Solvency of the State Employees’ Health Insurance Trust Fund examines how treating chronic pain through integrated, team-based care can both improve outcomes for State Group Insurance Program (SGIP) members and lower overall claims paid by Florida’s State Employees’ Health Insurance Trust Fund. With the Trust Fund projected to face a nearly $1.7 billion shortfall by FY 2029-30 without action, Florida TaxWatch outlines a pragmatic path that reduces costs by treating pain more effectively—not just shifting them to employees.

Florida Economic Forecast 2025 - 2034

Q2 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida's economy, valued at $1.76 trillion, entered 2025 on a strong footing but is projected to see its growth moderate to pre-pandemic levels over the next decade. This forecast from Florida TaxWatch indicates a shift from the high growth of recent years to a more sustainable, albeit slower, pace. While the state's population is expected to increase by 2.3 million by 2034, the rate of new residents moving to Florida is projected to decline, influenced by rising living costs.

Options to Eliminate or Reduce the Property Tax Burden on Florida Homeowners

/ Categories: Research, Education, Housing Affordability, Taxes, Local Government

Florida's property tax system is at a critical juncture, with total levies surging by 108% over the last decade, far exceeding the combined rate of population growth and inflation. This rapid increase, generating $55 billion in 2024 for local governments, has intensified the financial strain on homeowners and raised fundamental questions about the nature of property ownership, which currently resembles a form of "perpetual rent" to the government. This report from Florida TaxWatch analyzes the current landscape and explores five distinct options for reform, ranging from the complete elimination of property taxes for homeowners to more immediate statutory changes aimed at increasing transparency and accountability.

Trends in the Cost of Construction Materials

/ Categories: Research, Manufacturing, Public Infrastructure & Utilities

Construction is a cornerstone of Florida's economy, contributing $97 billion (5.7 percent) to the state's GDP in 2024. However, rising material costs are presenting significant challenges to the industry, impacting everything from large-scale infrastructure projects to residential home building and affordability for Florida taxpayers. This report from Florida TaxWatch examines the national and statewide trends driving these price increases and their potential consequences.

The Taxpayer's Guide to Florida's FY2025-26 State Budget

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Taxpayer Guide

Florida TaxWatch’s The Taxpayers’ Guide to Florida’s FY2025-26 State Budget explains the Legislature’s $114.8 billion spending plan (after $376 million in line-item vetoes)—a 3.2% decrease from FY2024-25—while maintaining $12.6 billion in reserves. General Revenue (GR) spending rises by $556 million, and the recurring GR base increases by $1.9 billion, even as total positions fall to 111,886 (-1,871).

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals

/ Categories: Research, Census Institute, Census, Federal Government

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals explains how Florida’s 2020 Census undercount—about 750,000 residents (3.48%)—reduced the state’s political representation and likely cost billions of dollars in federal funding over the decade. The report examines what Florida stood to gain if the count had been accurate and how proposed changes to who is counted could affect future apportionment.

Government Efficiency Should Not Be Something We Do Every Four Years

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Cost Savings, Local Government

Florida has proven ideas, demonstrated wins, and active tools; now it needs permanence. By embedding efficiency into the annual budget cycle—backed by transparent tracking and regular reporting—the state can convert sporadic initiatives into sustained savings and better service delivery for taxpayers.

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Sentencing Doesn't Require Psychic Powers

As crime in Florida continues to decline and state prison populations continue to exceed 100,000 inmates, policymakers and practitioners are all seeking to mitigate corrections cost by opting for less costly, but just as effective, alternatives.
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How Attractive is Florida's Business Tax Climate?

Like beauty, the attractiveness of a state’s business climate is in the eye of the beholder. There are many measures of states’ tax and business climates.
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Time to Even the Playing Field for Small Businesses

Small businesses truly are this nation’s backbone. They account for 94 percent of all the country’s businesses and are owned by a diverse array of Americans from all backgrounds. The ability to build a small business is the cornerstone of the American dream.

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An Ounce of Prevention is Worth a Pound of Cure

Could it be that the medical model can only take us so far along our road to better health? Are there alternate routes we should explore?
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Budget Watch - Revenue Estimates Increased Slightly, Shortfall Looms

Lawmakers received a small measure of positive fiscal news from state economists this week. The General Revenue (GR) Estimating Conference met on December 12, 2016 and increased its revenue forecast by $119.3 million in the current year (FY2016-17) and by $22.6 million for the next budget year (FY2017-18).
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Ideas in Action - Aligning Actions with Goals

Leading a corrections department and prisons is challenging. A successful leader mustwork with government entities, employees, unions, and their accompanying agendas, all while simultaneously dealing with individuals that our society cannot tolerate. An effective corrections leader must balance what is good for inmates and staff with what is good for our shared society.
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Tax Credit Scholarships Save Florida Money

It is understandable that new forms of public education — whether they are magnet schools, charters, virtual schooling or dual enrollment — can cause anxiety. The conversation around the teachers union lawsuit to shut down the tax credit scholarship program for low-income children has produced a lot of heat but has shed very little light on the issue. And the issue underlying the lawsuit is allowing parents of disadvantaged students to choose the best educational option that permits their children to reach new levels of academic achievement.

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2016 Annual Report

The 2016 Annual Report - Bridging the Gap Between Taxpayers and their Government
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The "He-Said, She-Said" of Medicaid Managed Care

The Senate Appropriation Subcommittee on Health and Human Services learned just how expensive getting old is, particularly when nursing home care is required.
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In Tight Budget Year, Lawmakers Must Commit to Government Efficiency

As the next legislative session approaches, Florida lawmakers face an uphill battle in funding critical government services while trying to sustain the state’s economic success.

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Criminal Justice: Policy In Progress

With the 2017 Legislative Session drawing closer, it is important to identify topics and bills and that have gained significant traction in recent years but haven’t come to fruition.
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