The What, Why, and How of the Florida TaxWatch Budget Turkey Watch Report

Legislator Resource

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Budget Turkeys

Florida TaxWatch’s annual Budget Turkey Watch Report for 2025 meticulously examines the state budget to identify appropriations that deviate from sound fiscal management principles. Below is an expanded overview of what Budget Turkeys are, why they are identified, and how they are determined.

Despite Uncertainty and Significant Downside Risk, Florida’s New General Revenue Forecast Adds $1.3 Billion to the Money Available for the New Budget

Budget Watch | March 2025

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps

Florida TaxWatch’s Budget Watch report for March 2025 examines the state’s updated General Revenue forecast, which adds approximately $1.3 billion to the money available for the new state budget. After a long streak of collections exceeding estimates, January’s shortfall signals a shift amid mounting economic uncertainty.

More States Are Using State-Level Tax Credits to Address Workforce and Affordable Housing Deficits

Florida Should Consider These Incentives

/ Categories: Research, Housing Affordability

This Florida TaxWatch report highlights a severe affordable housing crisis in Florida, where rising housing costs and a limited supply of affordable units place significant financial and social burdens on low-income families and essential workers. It advocates for the adoption of state-level tax credits to supplement federal programs, thereby incentivizing the construction of affordable housing, stimulating local economies, and reducing public costs.

An Independent Assessment of the Economic Impacts of South Florida’s St. Thomas University on Florida’s Economy

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development, Education, ROI Study

St. Thomas University (STU) plays a large role in Florida’s economy, fostering workforce development and economic mobility, particularly for underrepresented communities. This Florida TaxWatch ROI report evaluates STU’s impact, highlighting its contributions to job creation, income growth, and return on investment. With record-breaking enrollment, a diverse student body, and strong financial stability, STU generates over $1.5 billion in economic output and supports more than 8,500 jobs. Every $1 spent on STU results in $21.50 of economic output.

Enhancing Lives, Ensuring Accountability: The Value of Florida’s Behavioral Health Managing Entities

Tenth Year Review

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Health Care

Florida’s Behavioral Health Managing Entities (BHMEs) are at the heart of an innovative, community-based network delivering critical mental health and substance use services across the state. This report’s summary reveals how BHMEs efficiently coordinate a vast network of providers with minimal overhead—ensuring accessible, continuous care for vulnerable populations—while highlighting the risk that stagnant operational funding poses to their long-term sustainability. It ultimately recommends boosting operational funding from 3% to 5% to maintain the system’s effectiveness and guide future policy decisions.

Florida Economic Forecast: Q3 2024

A Florida TaxWatch Economic Commentary

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development, Economic Forecast

Florida's Economic Forecast 2024–2030 offers a concise look at Florida's future economic landscape. The report, built on REC Group data, outlines how the state is expected to continue growing—approaching a nearly $1.5 trillion economy—while highlighting shifts in population, net migration, and employment. It also examines changes in GDP, personal income, and the influence of tourism, comparing these trends to broader national economic indicators. Overall, the forecast serves as a valuable guide for understanding the opportunities and challenges Florida may face as it transitions into a more normalized, post-pandemic economic environment.

The Consequences of a Census Undercount on Florida’s Healthcare Funding

/ Categories: Research, Census Institute, Census, Health Care

Florida’s 2020 Census undercount has put billions of federal healthcare dollars at risk. With 750,000 residents uncounted, the state is projected to lose up to $21 billion in funding for Medicaid, CHIP, and other essential programs. This miscount impacts hospital planning, healthcare access, and federal funding formulas, costing Florida taxpayers $2.3 billion annually in lost Medicaid funds alone.

Solvency of the State Employees' Health Insurance Trust Fund

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Economic Development, Health Care

Florida TaxWatch’s latest report examines the financial solvency of the State Employees' Health Insurance Trust Fund, which faces rising costs and potential deficits in the coming years. Despite a projected $652.7 million cash balance for FY 2024-25, increasing healthcare expenses could lead to a $1.5 billion deficit by FY 2028-29. The report recommends increasing employee contributions to align with those of other large employers, potentially saving the state $446 million annually. Proactive policy changes are urged to ensure the fund’s sustainability amid future budget challenges.

Social Determinants of Health: Economic Stability

This report, the fifth installment in Florida TaxWatch’s five-part Social Determinants of Health series, examines how economic stability—steady employment, adequate income, food security, and housing stability—affects health outcomes. It highlights the health disparities faced by low-income families and advocates for policies promoting job access, affordable housing, and proper nutrition to improve public health across Florida.

Teaching Every Child to Swim Saves Thousands of Lives from Needless Drownings and Taxpayers Millions

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Education, Energy & Environment, Every Child a Swimmer

This Florida TaxWatch report highlights drowning as a leading cause of death for children in the U.S., particularly in Florida. It stresses the importance of teaching children water safety, noting that swimming lessons can reduce drowning risk by 88%. Despite recent legislative efforts, more actions are needed, such as offering drowning prevention videos to new parents in hospitals and increasing safety measures for at-risk children, including those with autism. The report calls for continued policy efforts to prevent drowning-related tragedies and save lives.

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Florida TaxWatch Provides Analysis of the Governor’s Property Tax Amendment and Legislation, Recommends Florida Taxation and Budget Reform Commission Lead Debate

Florida TaxWatch Provides Analysis of the Governor’s Property Tax Amendment and Legislation, Recommends Florida Taxation and Budget Reform Commission Lead Debate

The Florida Legislature is meeting in special session to consider Governor DeSantis’ proposed constitutional amendment and linked legislation to provide significant property tax relief to Florida homeowners. The proposal has many provisions, but the main ones would increase the homestead exemption to $150,000, beginning January 1, 2027, and then increase it to $250,000, beginning January 1, 2028. This exemption will apply to all property taxes. In addition, the cap on the annual increase in the assessment of non-homestead properties would be reduced from 10% to 5%, but this change would not apply to school property tax levies. Any property taxes remaining after the changes would be restricted to being used solely for core services such as public safety, education, infrastructure, debt, and retirement benefits.

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2026 Budget Turkey Watch Report

2026 Budget Turkey Watch Report

Since 1983, Florida TaxWatch has published this annual independent review of the state budget to promote oversight, integrity, and transparency in the appropriations process. This year’s review of Florida’s $114.5 billion budget for FY2026-27 identifies 621 items totaling $829.7 million that qualify as “Budget Turkeys.” In addition to projects that qualify as Budget Turkeys, this report highlights other areas in the budget that contain numerous member projects that, while they do not strictly meet our Budget Turkey criteria, certainly merit extra scrutiny and close gubernatorial review.  These additional 484 projects total $441.1 million.
The principle behind the Budget Turkey Watch Report is simple: taxpayer dollars should be allocated through a transparent, accountable, and deliberative processes. All appropriations, especially projects requested by individual legislators, should be subject to rigorous public review. This is especially important since these are typically projects that are local rather than statewide in scope and are often outside the core functions of state government.

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