New Labor Data Shows Weaker Labor Market Than Previously Expected

/ Categories: Research, Workforce Development, Blog

Since January 2025, the federal interest rate has remained unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The rates have been steady in hopes of curbing inflation and bringing it down to two percent, as unemployment numbers were not concerning until now. The latest revision data, however, will likely push the Federal Reserve to cut rates in their next meeting this month to 4.00 to 4.25 percent.

Interdisciplinary Pain Management As a Means to Help Address Solvency of the State Employees' Health Insurance Trust Fund

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Health Care, Insurance

With the Trust Fund projected to face a nearly $1.7 billion shortfall by FY 2029-30 without action, Florida TaxWatch outlines a pragmatic path that reduces costs by treating pain more effectively—not just shifting them to employees.

Florida Economic Forecast 2025 - 2034

Q2 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida's economy, valued at $1.76 trillion, entered 2025 on a strong footing but is projected to see its growth moderate to pre-pandemic levels over the next decade. This forecast from Florida TaxWatch indicates a shift from the high growth of recent years to a more sustainable, albeit slower, pace. While the state's population is expected to increase by 2.3 million by 2034, the rate of new residents moving to Florida is projected to decline, influenced by rising living costs.

Options to Eliminate or Reduce the Property Tax Burden on Florida Homeowners

/ Categories: Research, Education, Housing Affordability, Taxes, Local Government

Florida's property tax system is at a critical juncture, with total levies surging by 108% over the last decade, far exceeding the combined rate of population growth and inflation. This rapid increase, generating $55 billion in 2024 for local governments, has intensified the financial strain on homeowners and raised fundamental questions about the nature of property ownership, which currently resembles a form of "perpetual rent" to the government. This report from Florida TaxWatch analyzes the current landscape and explores five distinct options for reform, ranging from the complete elimination of property taxes for homeowners to more immediate statutory changes aimed at increasing transparency and accountability.

Trends in the Cost of Construction Materials

/ Categories: Research, Manufacturing, Public Infrastructure & Utilities

Construction is a cornerstone of Florida's economy, contributing $97 billion (5.7 percent) to the state's GDP in 2024. However, rising material costs are presenting significant challenges to the industry, impacting everything from large-scale infrastructure projects to residential home building and affordability for Florida taxpayers. This report from Florida TaxWatch examines the national and statewide trends driving these price increases and their potential consequences.

The Taxpayer's Guide to Florida's FY2025-26 State Budget

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Taxpayer Guide

Florida TaxWatch’s The Taxpayers’ Guide to Florida’s FY2025-26 State Budget explains the Legislature’s $114.8 billion spending plan (after $376 million in line-item vetoes)—a 3.2% decrease from FY2024-25—while maintaining $12.6 billion in reserves. General Revenue (GR) spending rises by $556 million, and the recurring GR base increases by $1.9 billion, even as total positions fall to 111,886 (-1,871).

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals

/ Categories: Research, Census Institute, Census, Federal Government

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals explains how Florida’s 2020 Census undercount—about 750,000 residents (3.48%)—reduced the state’s political representation and likely cost billions of dollars in federal funding over the decade. The report examines what Florida stood to gain if the count had been accurate and how proposed changes to who is counted could affect future apportionment.

Government Efficiency Should Not Be Something We Do Every Four Years

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Cost Savings, Local Government

Florida has proven ideas, demonstrated wins, and active tools; now it needs permanence. By embedding efficiency into the annual budget cycle—backed by transparent tracking and regular reporting—the state can convert sporadic initiatives into sustained savings and better service delivery for taxpayers.

2025 Principal Leadership Awards Roundtable Summary

/ Categories: Research, Education, Workforce Development

Principals are second only to teachers in their impact on student learning—and in Florida’s highest-need schools, effective leadership is the catalyst for outsize gains. Florida TaxWatch convened a roundtable on May 14, 2025 with the latest Principal Leadership Awards (PLA) winners to surface the strategies behind sustained improvement. Drawing on data-driven selection (FL-VAM) and firsthand practice, this summary distills what works and why it matters for schools serving predominantly at-risk students.

Update on the Implementation of the Live Local Act

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development, Housing Affordability

Florida continues to face a severe affordability gap in housing. In 2022, 35% of households were cost-burdened, and by 2024 the state was short more than 323,000 affordable units for households at 0–30% of Area Median Income (AMI). The Legislature’s 2023 Live Local Act—amended in 2024 and 2025—was designed to accelerate supply by combining incentives (notably property-tax exemptions) with strong preemption and streamlined approvals for qualifying projects. The law requires that at least 40% of units in eligible projects remain affordable for 30 years, and it allows multifamily development in commercial, industrial, or mixed-use zones without rezoning, subject to administrative review.

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Aging in Place—The Economic and Fiscal Value of Home and Community-Based Services

Aging in Place—The Economic and Fiscal Value of Home and Community-Based Services

Similar to demographic trends across the U.S., Florida will encounter a rapid increase in the number of elderly residents requiring long-term care and services. Florida’s 65 and older population is anticipated to grow by 52.1 percent over the next two decades from 4.4 to 6.7 million elderly residents. A variety of continuum of care options exists to accommodate the impending rise in long-term healthcare utilization, ranging from nursing homes to home and community-based settings. Not only do these options differ in their public costs and quality outcomes, but the COVID-19 pandemic has spotlighted the importance of physical risk and exposure to infection when considering what long-term settings exist. Due to the projected growth in Florida’s elderly population over the coming decades, it will be critical to expand resources across the state’s entire continuum of care.

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Manufacturing a  Transformational Shift—Expanding Florida’s Workforce Development Through Sector Strategies

Manufacturing a Transformational Shift—Expanding Florida’s Workforce Development Through Sector Strategies

FloridaMakes is a statewide, industry-led, public-private partnership operated by an alliance of Florida’s regional manufacturers’ associations. Since its inception in 2016, FloridaMakes has had an economic impact of $2.6 billion with almost 17,000 jobs created and/or retained. The pandemic underscored the important role Florida’s Manufacturing sector plays in providing products that are crucial to public health and safety, national security, and the continuity of many other industries.

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A System in Crisis: Stabilizing Florida’s Child Welfare Workforce

A System in Crisis: Stabilizing Florida’s Child Welfare Workforce

One of the fundamental responsibilities of government is to ensure the safety and welfare of those in its care. This includes our most vulnerable populations, such as children and families.

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A River (No Longer) Runs Through It

A River (No Longer) Runs Through It

This timely public policy debate centers on whether the dam and reservoir should remain in place or whether the dam should be breached to restore the natural flow of the Ocklawaha River. The “full retention” alternative would essentially maintain the status quo, while the “partial restoration” alternative would restore the river flow to near preconstruction conditions with limited removal of existing structures at the lowest cost. For each of these two alternatives, Florida TaxWatch examines the recreational,  economic, and environmental impacts.

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Wage Growth and Talent Attraction in the Pandemic Labor Market

Wage Growth and Talent Attraction in the Pandemic Labor Market

Amid a tight labor market and the ongoing “great resignation,” companies are pursuing creative and concerted efforts to attract and retain talent. Especially for service industries wrestling with existing labor shortages, recruitment methods have included sign-up bonuses, tuition reimbursement, free coding classes, and of course, higher wages. These strategies have produced higher pay for many workers and signaled a reversal from the lackluster wage growth in the years leading up to the pandemic.

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“Why Human Trafficking Is More Than Just A Moral Issue.”

January 2022 marked the 12th Annual Human Trafficking Awareness Month. A recognized memorial since 2010, the designation seeks to raise human trafficking awareness and educate the public about the crime’s heinous impact on millions of people across the world. Given the criminal enterprise nature of human trafficking, there is also an inherent economic cost to communities and the state of Florida when exploitation prevents victims from leading dignified, generative lives. What are the costs and implications of human trafficking in Florida?

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The Impacts of Consumer Data Privacy on Florida’s Economy

The Impacts of Consumer Data Privacy on Florida’s Economy

The 2022 Florida Legislature is considering two pieces of consumer data privacy legislation that would represent significant changes to how certain businesses collect, sell, and share consumer personal information, subject to certain exemptions and threshold requirements.

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HOUSE AND SENATE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE $3.3 BILLION APART

HOUSE AND SENATE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE $3.3 BILLION APART

The House and Senate have passed their respective budgets and now must hold budget conference meetings to hammer out the differences. An agreement must be reached on every number and every word in the 400-plus page appropriations bill. Budget negotiations are never easy and this year will be no exception, even with so much money available.

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Monitoring and Oversight of General Obligation Bonds to Improve Broward County Schools:

Monitoring and Oversight of General Obligation Bonds to Improve Broward County Schools:

On February 19, 2022, Florida TaxWatch received the Bond Oversight Committee Quarterly Report for the Quarter Ended December 31, 2021 (“Quarterly Report”). This report provides updated information on the implementation of the District’s SMART Program and the use of general obligation bond funds to purchase and install technology upgrades, purchase music and arts equipment, improve school safety, upgrade athletic facilities, and renovate educational facilities.

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