Florida Economic Forecast: 2025-2034

Q3 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida’s economy—valued at $1.76 trillion in Q1 2025—entered the year with strong momentum, but this Q3 2025 Florida TaxWatch forecast projects a return toward more “normal,” pre-pandemic growth rates over the next several years. While Florida’s population is still expected to climb to roughly 25.9 million by 2034, net migration is projected to cool as higher costs (housing, insurance, taxes) and other pressures weigh on in-migration.

Florida Economic Forecast 2025 - 2034

Q2 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida's economy, valued at $1.76 trillion, entered 2025 on a strong footing but is projected to see its growth moderate to pre-pandemic levels over the next decade. This forecast from Florida TaxWatch indicates a shift from the high growth of recent years to a more sustainable, albeit slower, pace. While the state's population is expected to increase by 2.3 million by 2034, the rate of new residents moving to Florida is projected to decline, influenced by rising living costs.

Despite Uncertainty and Significant Downside Risk, Florida’s New General Revenue Forecast Adds $1.3 Billion to the Money Available for the New Budget

Budget Watch | March 2025

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps

Florida TaxWatch’s Budget Watch report for March 2025 examines the state’s updated General Revenue forecast, which adds approximately $1.3 billion to the money available for the new state budget. After a long streak of collections exceeding estimates, January’s shortfall signals a shift amid mounting economic uncertainty.

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Cost of Living in Florida: A Mid-Decade Check-In

Cost of Living in Florida: A Mid-Decade Check-In

For millions of Floridians, the defining economic question of the mid-2020s isn't about growth or GDP — it's about whether they can still afford to stay.

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Tourism in Central Florida: Why Tourist Development Tax Revenue Should Not Be Diverted

Tourism in Central Florida: Why Tourist Development Tax Revenue Should Not Be Diverted

To remain competitive and sustain Florida’s share of the U.S. tourism market, Florida must continue to invest in tourism marketing and promotion to make sure that when tourists begin to plan their next vacation, they think first of Florida. Florida TaxWatch recommends the Legislature not approve any legislation that permits local governments divert the use of TDT-generated revenue from tourism marketing to support other activities.

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