New Labor Data Shows Weaker Labor Market Than Previously Expected

/ Categories: Research, Workforce Development, Blog

Since January 2025, the federal interest rate has remained unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The rates have been steady in hopes of curbing inflation and bringing it down to two percent, as unemployment numbers were not concerning until now. The latest revision data, however, will likely push the Federal Reserve to cut rates in their next meeting this month to 4.00 to 4.25 percent.

Interdisciplinary Pain Management As a Means to Help Address Solvency of the State Employees' Health Insurance Trust Fund

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Health Care, Insurance

With the Trust Fund projected to face a nearly $1.7 billion shortfall by FY 2029-30 without action, Florida TaxWatch outlines a pragmatic path that reduces costs by treating pain more effectively—not just shifting them to employees.

Florida Economic Forecast 2025 - 2034

Q2 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida's economy, valued at $1.76 trillion, entered 2025 on a strong footing but is projected to see its growth moderate to pre-pandemic levels over the next decade. This forecast from Florida TaxWatch indicates a shift from the high growth of recent years to a more sustainable, albeit slower, pace. While the state's population is expected to increase by 2.3 million by 2034, the rate of new residents moving to Florida is projected to decline, influenced by rising living costs.

Options to Eliminate or Reduce the Property Tax Burden on Florida Homeowners

/ Categories: Research, Education, Housing Affordability, Taxes, Local Government

Florida's property tax system is at a critical juncture, with total levies surging by 108% over the last decade, far exceeding the combined rate of population growth and inflation. This rapid increase, generating $55 billion in 2024 for local governments, has intensified the financial strain on homeowners and raised fundamental questions about the nature of property ownership, which currently resembles a form of "perpetual rent" to the government. This report from Florida TaxWatch analyzes the current landscape and explores five distinct options for reform, ranging from the complete elimination of property taxes for homeowners to more immediate statutory changes aimed at increasing transparency and accountability.

Trends in the Cost of Construction Materials

/ Categories: Research, Manufacturing, Public Infrastructure & Utilities

Construction is a cornerstone of Florida's economy, contributing $97 billion (5.7 percent) to the state's GDP in 2024. However, rising material costs are presenting significant challenges to the industry, impacting everything from large-scale infrastructure projects to residential home building and affordability for Florida taxpayers. This report from Florida TaxWatch examines the national and statewide trends driving these price increases and their potential consequences.

The Taxpayer's Guide to Florida's FY2025-26 State Budget

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Taxpayer Guide

Florida TaxWatch’s The Taxpayers’ Guide to Florida’s FY2025-26 State Budget explains the Legislature’s $114.8 billion spending plan (after $376 million in line-item vetoes)—a 3.2% decrease from FY2024-25—while maintaining $12.6 billion in reserves. General Revenue (GR) spending rises by $556 million, and the recurring GR base increases by $1.9 billion, even as total positions fall to 111,886 (-1,871).

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals

/ Categories: Research, Census Institute, Census, Federal Government

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals explains how Florida’s 2020 Census undercount—about 750,000 residents (3.48%)—reduced the state’s political representation and likely cost billions of dollars in federal funding over the decade. The report examines what Florida stood to gain if the count had been accurate and how proposed changes to who is counted could affect future apportionment.

Government Efficiency Should Not Be Something We Do Every Four Years

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Cost Savings, Local Government

Florida has proven ideas, demonstrated wins, and active tools; now it needs permanence. By embedding efficiency into the annual budget cycle—backed by transparent tracking and regular reporting—the state can convert sporadic initiatives into sustained savings and better service delivery for taxpayers.

2025 Principal Leadership Awards Roundtable Summary

/ Categories: Research, Education, Workforce Development

Principals are second only to teachers in their impact on student learning—and in Florida’s highest-need schools, effective leadership is the catalyst for outsize gains. Florida TaxWatch convened a roundtable on May 14, 2025 with the latest Principal Leadership Awards (PLA) winners to surface the strategies behind sustained improvement. Drawing on data-driven selection (FL-VAM) and firsthand practice, this summary distills what works and why it matters for schools serving predominantly at-risk students.

Update on the Implementation of the Live Local Act

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development, Housing Affordability

Florida continues to face a severe affordability gap in housing. In 2022, 35% of households were cost-burdened, and by 2024 the state was short more than 323,000 affordable units for households at 0–30% of Area Median Income (AMI). The Legislature’s 2023 Live Local Act—amended in 2024 and 2025—was designed to accelerate supply by combining incentives (notably property-tax exemptions) with strong preemption and streamlined approvals for qualifying projects. The law requires that at least 40% of units in eligible projects remain affordable for 30 years, and it allows multifamily development in commercial, industrial, or mixed-use zones without rezoning, subject to administrative review.

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Who Knows What—Analysis of Data Privacy Legislation in Florida

Who Knows What—Analysis of Data Privacy Legislation in Florida

Florida TaxWatch undertakes this updated, independent assessment to better understand the economic impacts that consumer data privacy legislation would have in Florida. The report details the individual cost components that would comprise compliance activities. Building upon the previous research brief, this report calculates the potential economic cost of litigation that a private right of action would produce. The recommendations contained at the end of the report provide policymakers with some key considerations to minimize adverse outcomes while attaining the core goal of data privacy.

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Navigating Federal Pandemic Relief: Following billions in stimulus dollars, where do we go from here?

Navigating Federal Pandemic Relief: Following billions in stimulus dollars, where do we go from here?

The massive amount of federal funding provided in the six stimulus acts provides an unprecedented opportunity to improve Florida and fund programs and infrastructure that have had long-standing backlogs with few past feasible opportunities to address to this degree.

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Beyond the Pandemic: Long-Term Changes and Challenges for Housing in Florida

Beyond the Pandemic: Long-Term Changes and Challenges for Housing in Florida

As unexpected and unpredictable as COVID-19 has been, few could have predicted the housing boom that the pandemic ignited across the nation. The U.S. housing market—notoriously known for its role in the 2007-2009 Great Recession—defied expectations and experienced record price growth over the past year as demographic trends, government policies, and basic supply and demand all coalesced. In the short term, soaring home prices have been well-documented both analytically and anecdotally.

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A Rising Tide Sinks All Homes - The Effects of Climate Change on Florida's Economy

A Rising Tide Sinks All Homes - The Effects of Climate Change on Florida's Economy

With more than 8,400 miles of coastline and a flat, low-lying coastal topography, Florida is especially vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise. Tens of thousands of Florida homes and businesses are at increased risk from sea level rise. Much of Florida’s critical infrastructure is at low elevations, designed and built with little consideration of future sea level rise. The physical effect of changing climate translates into real economic impacts.

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Corporate Income Tax Issues for the 2022 Legislature

Corporate Income Tax Issues for the 2022 Legislature

Federal corporate income tax reform, which had the general aim of broadening the base and lowering the rate, has reduced the federal tax burden on many corporations. However, since Florida adopted most of the base expansion measures without a concurrent rate reduction, federal tax reform has resulted in increased taxes at the state level, even after subsequent state refunds and rate cuts.

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2021 How Florida Compares: Taxes

2021 How Florida Compares: Taxes

Have you ever wondered how Florida’s taxes stack up against the taxes in other states? If so, this report is for you.

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A New Durbin Amendment Would Spell Trouble for U.S. Credit Card Customers

A New Durbin Amendment Would Spell Trouble for U.S. Credit Card Customers

There are times when we are uncertain what will happen if a particular public policy is implemented. A proposal in Congress about cuts in interchange fees on credit cards is not one of them.

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