For millions of Floridians, the defining economic question of the mid-2020s isn't about growth or GDP — it's about whether they can still afford to stay.

For the second year in a row, the Florida Legislature ended its 60-day session without completing its only constitutionally required task — passing a state budget. House Speaker Daniel Perez cited a "fundamental disagreement on what the state budget should look like," with the House seeking to spend less and the Senate more. The House and Senate budget proposals total $113.6 billion and $115.0 billion, respectively.

Florida's economy reached $1.85 trillion in Q3 2025, ranking first among all 50 states and the District of Columbia in economic growth. This fourth installment of Florida TaxWatch's quarterly economic forecast series — produced in partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group — examines whether that momentum is sustainable through 2035.

Florida’s Law Enforcement Apprenticeship Program (LEAP) is an innovative workforce solution addressing persistent staffing shortages in law enforcement, particularly in rural and fiscally constrained communities. Backed by $3.25 million in state funding, the program currently supports 117 apprentices across 25 Sheriff’s Offices, allowing participants to earn a salary while completing required training. By removing financial barriers to entry, LEAP is expanding access to law enforcement careers, strengthening local recruitment pipelines, and helping agencies improve staffing levels while building a more diverse and sustainable workforce.

Manufacturing is one of Florida’s leading industries and a key driver of job growth and economic strength, contributing more than $80 billion to Florida’s annual GDP. With more than 27,000 manufacturers—most of them small businesses with fewer than 20 employees—Florida’s manufacturing sector supports more than 430,000 high-wage jobs, with average salaries exceeding $78,000.

Florida TaxWatch examines the City of Clearwater’s plan to acquire Duke Energy Florida’s electric distribution assets and establish a municipal electric utility (MEU) in response to concerns over electric rates and service quality. While the City’s feasibility study projects modest short-term rate savings, Florida TaxWatch finds those projections rely on unrealistic assumptions—most notably an “overnight” conversion that ignores the likely decade-long, costly eminent domain process required to acquire Duke’s assets. Drawing on national municipalization case studies, the report highlights high failure rates, underestimated acquisition and severance costs, loss of economies of scale, and substantial financial exposure for taxpayers. Florida TaxWatch concludes that the proposed MEU represents a high-risk endeavor with limited upside and recommends the City pursue a renegotiated franchise agreement with Duke Energy Florida as a more prudent path forward.

The General Revenue (GR) Estimating Conference met on January 23 to adopt Florida’s latest GR forecast—the estimate that tells lawmakers how much is available for the next state budget. The updated forecast adds $572.5 million to the amount available for the upcoming budget year, but while meaningful, it amounts to only about one percent of total GR collections.

For more than 60 years, Florida’s Space Coast—anchored by Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS)—has served as a premier gateway to space, driving tourism, high-tech jobs, and statewide economic output. After major federal program shifts in the 2010s led to significant regional job losses, Florida’s modern commercial-space resurgence—supported by Space Florida’s strategy to diversify the supply chain, modernize infrastructure, and attract private capital—has positioned the Space Coast to lead the next era of aerospace growth.

Florida property tax levies have been rising rapidly—increasing by nearly 40 percent in just the last three years and more than doubling in the last ten years—with property taxes now totaling $59.2 billion (FY2025–26). With the Legislature’s increased focus on affordability, especially housing affordability, property taxes are expected to be a top issue during the 2026 legislative session.

Florida’s economy—valued at $1.76 trillion in Q1 2025—entered the year with strong momentum, but this Q3 2025 Florida TaxWatch forecast projects a return toward more “normal,” pre-pandemic growth rates over the next several years. While Florida’s population is still expected to climb to roughly 25.9 million by 2034, net migration is projected to cool as higher costs (housing, insurance, taxes) and other pressures weigh on in-migration.

In May 2025, Florida TaxWatch and the Florida Sheriff Association conducted a joint survey to local sheriff offices to learn more about law enforcement’s workforce challenges.

Setting water utility rates that incorporate the recovery of the costs associated with standard operating expenses and debt obligations is essential to ensuring the short-term and longer-term financial stability of the utility. Once these costs are covered, many publicly owned utilities make transfers to the General Fund (a practice known as “sweeping”) ostensibly to help pay for governmental services that do not generate revenue (e.g., roadway maintenance, public safety, etc.) and to help keep property taxes lower. Keeping property taxes low often means higher municipal utility rates to balance the general budget, a habitual practice that burdens utility customers with cross-subsidies and normalizes underinvestment in infrastructure.