New Labor Data Shows Weaker Labor Market Than Previously Expected

/ Categories: Research, Workforce Development, Blog

Since January 2025, the federal interest rate has remained unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The rates have been steady in hopes of curbing inflation and bringing it down to two percent, as unemployment numbers were not concerning until now. The latest revision data, however, will likely push the Federal Reserve to cut rates in their next meeting this month to 4.00 to 4.25 percent.

Interdisciplinary Pain Management As a Means to Help Address Solvency of the State Employees' Health Insurance Trust Fund

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Health Care, Insurance

With the Trust Fund projected to face a nearly $1.7 billion shortfall by FY 2029-30 without action, Florida TaxWatch outlines a pragmatic path that reduces costs by treating pain more effectively—not just shifting them to employees.

Florida Economic Forecast 2025 - 2034

Q2 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida's economy, valued at $1.76 trillion, entered 2025 on a strong footing but is projected to see its growth moderate to pre-pandemic levels over the next decade. This forecast from Florida TaxWatch indicates a shift from the high growth of recent years to a more sustainable, albeit slower, pace. While the state's population is expected to increase by 2.3 million by 2034, the rate of new residents moving to Florida is projected to decline, influenced by rising living costs.

Options to Eliminate or Reduce the Property Tax Burden on Florida Homeowners

/ Categories: Research, Education, Housing Affordability, Taxes, Local Government

Florida's property tax system is at a critical juncture, with total levies surging by 108% over the last decade, far exceeding the combined rate of population growth and inflation. This rapid increase, generating $55 billion in 2024 for local governments, has intensified the financial strain on homeowners and raised fundamental questions about the nature of property ownership, which currently resembles a form of "perpetual rent" to the government. This report from Florida TaxWatch analyzes the current landscape and explores five distinct options for reform, ranging from the complete elimination of property taxes for homeowners to more immediate statutory changes aimed at increasing transparency and accountability.

Trends in the Cost of Construction Materials

/ Categories: Research, Manufacturing, Public Infrastructure & Utilities

Construction is a cornerstone of Florida's economy, contributing $97 billion (5.7 percent) to the state's GDP in 2024. However, rising material costs are presenting significant challenges to the industry, impacting everything from large-scale infrastructure projects to residential home building and affordability for Florida taxpayers. This report from Florida TaxWatch examines the national and statewide trends driving these price increases and their potential consequences.

The Taxpayer's Guide to Florida's FY2025-26 State Budget

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Taxpayer Guide

Florida TaxWatch’s The Taxpayers’ Guide to Florida’s FY2025-26 State Budget explains the Legislature’s $114.8 billion spending plan (after $376 million in line-item vetoes)—a 3.2% decrease from FY2024-25—while maintaining $12.6 billion in reserves. General Revenue (GR) spending rises by $556 million, and the recurring GR base increases by $1.9 billion, even as total positions fall to 111,886 (-1,871).

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals

/ Categories: Research, Census Institute, Census, Federal Government

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals explains how Florida’s 2020 Census undercount—about 750,000 residents (3.48%)—reduced the state’s political representation and likely cost billions of dollars in federal funding over the decade. The report examines what Florida stood to gain if the count had been accurate and how proposed changes to who is counted could affect future apportionment.

Government Efficiency Should Not Be Something We Do Every Four Years

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Cost Savings, Local Government

Florida has proven ideas, demonstrated wins, and active tools; now it needs permanence. By embedding efficiency into the annual budget cycle—backed by transparent tracking and regular reporting—the state can convert sporadic initiatives into sustained savings and better service delivery for taxpayers.

2025 Principal Leadership Awards Roundtable Summary

/ Categories: Research, Education, Workforce Development

Principals are second only to teachers in their impact on student learning—and in Florida’s highest-need schools, effective leadership is the catalyst for outsize gains. Florida TaxWatch convened a roundtable on May 14, 2025 with the latest Principal Leadership Awards (PLA) winners to surface the strategies behind sustained improvement. Drawing on data-driven selection (FL-VAM) and firsthand practice, this summary distills what works and why it matters for schools serving predominantly at-risk students.

Update on the Implementation of the Live Local Act

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development, Housing Affordability

Florida continues to face a severe affordability gap in housing. In 2022, 35% of households were cost-burdened, and by 2024 the state was short more than 323,000 affordable units for households at 0–30% of Area Median Income (AMI). The Legislature’s 2023 Live Local Act—amended in 2024 and 2025—was designed to accelerate supply by combining incentives (notably property-tax exemptions) with strong preemption and streamlined approvals for qualifying projects. The law requires that at least 40% of units in eligible projects remain affordable for 30 years, and it allows multifamily development in commercial, industrial, or mixed-use zones without rezoning, subject to administrative review.

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2016 Economic Preview

As we kick off 2016, Floridians can look forward to consistent growth in the Florida economy. As shown in the December 2015 Economic Commentary, Florida experienced strong job growth in 2015, adding nearly a quarter of a million jobs. Heading into 2016, Florida’s job market is widely expected to maintain its course as the Florida economy as a whole continues to strengthen. One of the most commonly used metrics to measure a state’s economy is the Real Gross State Product (RGSP), which measures the value of economic output for a given state, adjusted for price changes stemming from inflation or deflation. Florida’s RGSP is expected to grow 3.1 percent in 2016, which is roughly a half a percentage point higher than the United States.
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Expanding Job Opportunities for Non-Violent Offenders

With more than‚Ä≠ ‚Ĩ100,000‚Ä≠ ‚Ĩinmates‚Ä≠ ‚Ĩbehind bars,‚Ä≠ ‚ĨFlorida’s correctional population is among the largest in the United States.

One of the primary causes for the high population is that more than two-thirds of offenders are re-arrested and‚Ä≠ ‚Ĩmore than one-in-four‚Ä≠ ‚Ĩreturn to prison within three years of their release.‚Ä≠  ‚ĨWhen these individuals cycle in and out of state and local facilities,‚Ä≠ ‚Ĩthey run up an enormous bill that is shouldered by Florida taxpayers.‚Ä≠ ‚ĨIt costs an average of‚Ä≠ ‚Ĩnearly‚Ä≠ ‚Ĩ$19,000‚Ä≠ ‚Ĩper year to house an inmate‚Ä≠ – ‚Ĩmore than three times the cost of tuition at the University of Florida.‚Ä≠

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Budget Watch - Governor's FY2016-17 Recommended Budget

Florida legislators received news this week that they will have $395.6 million less to spend on the next state budget than originally anticipated. Citing weaker corporate profits and adverse developments in the international economy, the state General Revenue (GR) Estimating Conference decreased its estimates of GR collections in each of the six years in its forecast horizon.
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Predatory Public Records Requests

This report examines abuses of the state's Public Records Act, focusing on predatory practices that take advantage of local governments, and use the power of litigation to profit off of the taxpayers.
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2015 Annual Report

Bridging the Gap Between Taxpayers and Their Government
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Building Florida's High-Tech Manufacturing Sector

As the global manufacturing industry shifts away from classically portrayed steel and car plants to a modernized approach of high-tech manufacturing; companies, countries, and states find themselves looking for a way to best position themselves to benefit from the future of manufacturing. Florida finds itself in a unique position to capitalize on an existing project that could help the state become a world leader in high-tech manufacturing for years to come.
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