New Labor Data Shows Weaker Labor Market Than Previously Expected

/ Categories: Research, Workforce Development, Blog

Since January 2025, the federal interest rate has remained unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The rates have been steady in hopes of curbing inflation and bringing it down to two percent, as unemployment numbers were not concerning until now. The latest revision data, however, will likely push the Federal Reserve to cut rates in their next meeting this month to 4.00 to 4.25 percent.

Interdisciplinary Pain Management As a Means to Help Address Solvency of the State Employees' Health Insurance Trust Fund

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Health Care, Insurance

With the Trust Fund projected to face a nearly $1.7 billion shortfall by FY 2029-30 without action, Florida TaxWatch outlines a pragmatic path that reduces costs by treating pain more effectively—not just shifting them to employees.

Florida Economic Forecast 2025 - 2034

Q2 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida's economy, valued at $1.76 trillion, entered 2025 on a strong footing but is projected to see its growth moderate to pre-pandemic levels over the next decade. This forecast from Florida TaxWatch indicates a shift from the high growth of recent years to a more sustainable, albeit slower, pace. While the state's population is expected to increase by 2.3 million by 2034, the rate of new residents moving to Florida is projected to decline, influenced by rising living costs.

Options to Eliminate or Reduce the Property Tax Burden on Florida Homeowners

/ Categories: Research, Education, Housing Affordability, Taxes, Local Government

Florida's property tax system is at a critical juncture, with total levies surging by 108% over the last decade, far exceeding the combined rate of population growth and inflation. This rapid increase, generating $55 billion in 2024 for local governments, has intensified the financial strain on homeowners and raised fundamental questions about the nature of property ownership, which currently resembles a form of "perpetual rent" to the government. This report from Florida TaxWatch analyzes the current landscape and explores five distinct options for reform, ranging from the complete elimination of property taxes for homeowners to more immediate statutory changes aimed at increasing transparency and accountability.

Trends in the Cost of Construction Materials

/ Categories: Research, Manufacturing, Public Infrastructure & Utilities

Construction is a cornerstone of Florida's economy, contributing $97 billion (5.7 percent) to the state's GDP in 2024. However, rising material costs are presenting significant challenges to the industry, impacting everything from large-scale infrastructure projects to residential home building and affordability for Florida taxpayers. This report from Florida TaxWatch examines the national and statewide trends driving these price increases and their potential consequences.

The Taxpayer's Guide to Florida's FY2025-26 State Budget

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Taxpayer Guide

Florida TaxWatch’s The Taxpayers’ Guide to Florida’s FY2025-26 State Budget explains the Legislature’s $114.8 billion spending plan (after $376 million in line-item vetoes)—a 3.2% decrease from FY2024-25—while maintaining $12.6 billion in reserves. General Revenue (GR) spending rises by $556 million, and the recurring GR base increases by $1.9 billion, even as total positions fall to 111,886 (-1,871).

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals

/ Categories: Research, Census Institute, Census, Federal Government

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals explains how Florida’s 2020 Census undercount—about 750,000 residents (3.48%)—reduced the state’s political representation and likely cost billions of dollars in federal funding over the decade. The report examines what Florida stood to gain if the count had been accurate and how proposed changes to who is counted could affect future apportionment.

Government Efficiency Should Not Be Something We Do Every Four Years

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Cost Savings, Local Government

Florida has proven ideas, demonstrated wins, and active tools; now it needs permanence. By embedding efficiency into the annual budget cycle—backed by transparent tracking and regular reporting—the state can convert sporadic initiatives into sustained savings and better service delivery for taxpayers.

2025 Principal Leadership Awards Roundtable Summary

/ Categories: Research, Education, Workforce Development

Principals are second only to teachers in their impact on student learning—and in Florida’s highest-need schools, effective leadership is the catalyst for outsize gains. Florida TaxWatch convened a roundtable on May 14, 2025 with the latest Principal Leadership Awards (PLA) winners to surface the strategies behind sustained improvement. Drawing on data-driven selection (FL-VAM) and firsthand practice, this summary distills what works and why it matters for schools serving predominantly at-risk students.

Update on the Implementation of the Live Local Act

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development, Housing Affordability

Florida continues to face a severe affordability gap in housing. In 2022, 35% of households were cost-burdened, and by 2024 the state was short more than 323,000 affordable units for households at 0–30% of Area Median Income (AMI). The Legislature’s 2023 Live Local Act—amended in 2024 and 2025—was designed to accelerate supply by combining incentives (notably property-tax exemptions) with strong preemption and streamlined approvals for qualifying projects. The law requires that at least 40% of units in eligible projects remain affordable for 30 years, and it allows multifamily development in commercial, industrial, or mixed-use zones without rezoning, subject to administrative review.

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POLICY STUDIES ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Be Prepared: Using Florida’s Natural Infrastructure to Combat Climate Change

POLICY STUDIES ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Be Prepared: Using Florida’s Natural Infrastructure to Combat Climate Change

Florida has a diverse and beautiful natural environment, ranging from the Everglades to the beaches of the Florida panhandle. The state is also vulnerable to a variety of extreme weather events, such as flooding and hurricanes, which are projected to become more severe in the coming decades due to climate change. Protecting the state against these events could be a costly undertaking. Various proposals seek to minimize the risks through new infrastructure projects such as sea walls. But in deciding how best to adapt to extreme weather risk, Florida should be sure to consider using the state’s “natural infrastructure” to protect itself in a less costly and more sustainable way.

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IDEAS IN ACTION: Be Prepared: Using Florida’s Natural Infrastructure to Combat Climate Change

IDEAS IN ACTION: Be Prepared: Using Florida’s Natural Infrastructure to Combat Climate Change

Florida has a diverse and beautiful natural environment, ranging from the Everglades to the beaches of the Florida panhandle. The state is also vulnerable to a variety of extreme weather events, such as flooding and hurricanes, which are projected to become more severe in the coming decades due to climate change. Protecting the state against these events could be a costly undertaking. Various proposals seek to minimize the risks through new infrastructure projects such as sea walls. But in deciding how best to adapt to extreme weather risk, Florida should be sure to consider using the state’s “natural infrastructure” to protect itself in a less costly and more sustainable way.

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A Closer Look at Florida’s Sales Tax Exemptions

A Closer Look at Florida’s Sales Tax Exemptions

The six percent sales and use tax is Florida state government’s largest revenue sourceby far, currently bringing in approximately $36 billion annually. When the almost $6 billion in local option sales tax collections is included with the state tax, the $42 billion total collections make the sales tax the number one tax source for all Florida governments, topping the $40 billion local property tax.

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Why Taxpayers Should Care about Workforce Instability with Florida’s Public Defenders and State Attorneys

Why Taxpayers Should Care about Workforce Instability with Florida’s Public Defenders and State Attorneys

One of the fundamental responsibilities of government is to ensure the safety and welfare of those in its care. This includes indigents who are accused of wrongdoing and who would otherwise be unable to afford a private attorney to defend them. It is essential that, in all criminal prosecutions, the accused is afforded all rights under Amendment VI of the U.S. Constitution, including the right to a speedy trial and the right to have the assistance of competent defense counsel, even if they cannot afford it.

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Op-Ed: Reversing Florida's Back-Breaking Tort Tax

If you are looking for a wild ride in the legal system, Florida is the place to be.

Florida has taken significant steps to mitigate the effects of the state’s tort environment, specifically as it relates to the challenging property insurance marketplace. The legislature convened in May and December 2022 to pass crucial legislation (Senate Bill 2D and Senate Bill 2A) intended to help the marketplace heal from frivolous lawsuits, insurance company insolvencies, and issues resulting from natural catastrophes. (For perspective, Florida makes up 79 percent of homeowners insurance lawsuits nationwide, but only accounts for 9 percent of all homeowners insurance claims). Yet there is still a great deal of room for improvement.

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Florida’s Housing Market: Trends of Supply and Demand

Florida’s Housing Market: Trends of Supply and Demand

As Florida continues to grow, the development of infrastructure (e.g., roads, water and wastewater systems, parks, etc.) must keep pace. In January 2023, Florida TaxWatch released “Economic Commentary: An Update on Florida’s Housing Rental Market,” which evaluated the troubles Florida has experienced with the ever-rising cost of rent. In Florida, the cost of rent has jumped by 36 percent since 2020, with much of the increase occurring in 2021 alone.

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BudgetWatch: New General Revenue Estimates Add $7 Billion for the Next Budget

BudgetWatch: New General Revenue Estimates Add $7 Billion for the Next Budget

In what has been a regular occurrence, the Florida General Revenue (GR) Estimating Conference significantly increased the estimate of the amount of GR that will be collected. This is the sixth conference in a row that has produced a rosier revenue forecast. The last reduced estimate came at the August 2020 conference, just as the coronavirus pandemic began its relatively short-lived slowdown of Florida’s revenue collections.

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Water Turkeys: Despite Increased Funding for Florida’s Water Resources and the Creation of New Competitive Grants Processes, Local Member Earmarks are Proliferating

Water Turkeys: Despite Increased Funding for Florida’s Water Resources and the Creation of New Competitive Grants Processes, Local Member Earmarks are Proliferating

Florida has been making very large investments in the protection and restoration of the state’s water resources. On his second day in office, Governor Ron DeSantis issued an Executive Order making water a top priority. The Executive Order called for funding of $2.5 billion over four years—$625 million a year—to significantly expedite Everglades restoration and enhance the protection of our water systems. This goal was surpassed, with $3.3 billion appropriated by the Florida Legislature in the last four years for specific key water funding in addition to hundreds of millions more in water-related appropriations also in the state budget.

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