Florida Economic Forecast: Q1 2025

Florida's economy has been growing to new heights these past years—reaching nearly $1.5 trillion. The Q1 2025 economic forecast by Florida TaxWatch examines key trends in population growth, employment, income, GDP, and tourism, offering valuable insights for policymakers, business leaders, and taxpayers.

Key Highlights:

• Population & Net Migration:
  • Florida’s population is projected to grow by 1.4 million between 2025 and 2030.
  • Daily net migration slows from 972 new residents in 2024 to 789 by 2030.
  • Rising costs of living, insurance, and weather concerns are some of the reasons driving people to leave the state.
• Jobs & Economy:
  • Employment is expected to rise from 10 million to 10.9 million by 2030.
  • Unemployment rate increases slightly, peaking at 4.5% in 2027 before falling again.
  • Real GDP growth slows from 3.6% in 2024 to 2.1% by 2030.
  • Personal income per capita peaks at 5.0% growth in 2027, before decreasing to 4.3% by 2030.
• Tourism:
  • Florida welcomed a record 142.9 million visitors in 2024, the third consecutive year with record numbers.
  • A study shows that tourism supports 2.1 million jobs and saves each household $1,910 annually in state and local taxes.
  • Visitor growth rate is expected to dip in 2025 down to 0.3%, with an expected zero percent growth in 2027, before gradually rising again at low rates.
• Florida vs. U.S. Economy:
  • Florida’s unemployment rate remains consistently below the national average.
  • Personal income growth in Florida is projected to surpass the U.S. average from 2027 onward.
  • The state's economic growth trends closely align with national patterns, showing an overall steady performance.