FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Tuesday, September 2, 2025
CONTACT: Christina Johnson
Tallahassee, Fla. – Today, Florida TaxWatch released a Census Briefing – Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals, examining Florida’s history of census undercounts, the consequences on Florida’s loss of a congressional seat, and considerations to support the 2030 Census. This information is provided through Florida TaxWatch’s Census Institute: Ensuring A Complete Census Count In 2030, delivering data-driven analysis of the 2020 Census undercount to ensure every Floridian is accurately counted and represented in 2030.
Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro said, “During the 2020 census, an estimated 750,000 Floridians failed to respond to their census survey, resulting in a statistically significant undercount of 3.48 percent. This undercount cost the State of Florida at least one additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, and at least one additional vote in the Electoral College, and billions of dollars’ worth of grant funding throughout the decade. However, any change to the operations of the census count must withstand constitutional scrutiny, which is why Florida TaxWatch examined three scenarios under the current proposed changes – concluding that Florida would have gained at least one additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in every scenario.”
Florida TaxWatch Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp said, “Florida’s census undercount not only cost the state at least one congressional seat but also resulted in a loss of federal funding that will range from $11 billion to $21 billion by the end of the decade. Planning for the next census count is currently shrouded by questions of whom to count and when to count. The three scenarios outlined by Florida TaxWatch reveal the answer to perhaps the most critical question for Florida taxpayers—what is at stake for the State of Florida? To maintain a fair democratic republic, every state should count its residents in the same way.”
To better understand Florida’s stake in the census amid proposed changes, this briefing uses data from 2020 to calculate the outcomes of apportionment under three different scenarios:
Scenario 1 – If all residents of the United States were accurately counted in 2020.
The calculation for Scenario 1 was previously presented in the Florida TaxWatch Census Institute report “The Census Undercount Limits Florida’s Political Influence.” The results show that if the priority values for seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were based on a more accurate census count, three states would have gained an additional seat—Florida, Tennessee, and Texas. Due to census miscounts, those seats now belong to Colorado, Minnesota, and Rhode Island.
Scenario 2 – If all legal residents of the United States were accurately counted in 2020.
On August 7, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that the next census count would exclude illegal immigrants. To calculate how this would have affected apportionment if it were in place during the 2020 Census, an estimated number of illegal immigrants for each state is subtracted from the population count that was adjusted for miscounts in Scenario 1. This calculation uses the estimated number of illegal immigrants from the Migration Policy Institute, which uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) and the Department of Homeland Security to calculate its estimates.
The results show that, if the priority values for seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were based on a more accurate census count and excluded illegal immigrants, five states would have gained one or more additional seats—Florida, Louisiana, Ohio, Texas, and Virginia. Four states would lose one or more seats—California, Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island.
Scenario 3 – If only citizens of the United States were accurately counted in 2020.
On August 5, 2025, U.S. House Representative Randy Fine (R-FL-6) introduced the Correct the Count Act, which would require a snap census that counts only citizens of the United States. To calculate how this would have affected apportionment if it were in place during the 2020 Census, an estimated number of non-citizens was subtracted from the population count that was adjusted for miscounts in Scenario 1. The estimate of non-citizens was collected from the ACS 5-Year Estimates (2020). In addition to illegal immigrants, non-citizens should include permanent residents, non-immigrants with temporary legal status, and refugees and asylees. The ACS is a self-identified survey, imposing a limitation upon this estimate.
The results show that, if the priority values for seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were based on a more accurate census count and excluded non-citizens, seven states would have gained an additional seat—Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. Meanwhile, California would lose three seats, New York would lose two seats, and Minnesota and Rhode Island would each lose one seat.
Setting aside discussion on whether relying on a population survey is the best way to create population counts, the state must do what it can to achieve a more accurate count during the next census. The state can best prepare by providing support during the Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA). During LUCA, which typically occurs three years prior to the decennial census, every municipality and county is responsible for providing the U.S. Census Bureau with a list of existing residences. If the U.S. Census Bureau does not know a residence exists, it will not try to count its residents.
Florida is one of the fastest growing states in the nation. Even with a perfect census count, Florida’s ratio of representatives to residents would again quickly grow out of proportion with other states midway through the decade. Florida taxpayers at least deserve a fair start.
For the census to be truly fair, every state must count their residents in the same way. Data suggest hesitancy from immigrant communities to respond to the census survey is part of the reason for Florida’s census undercount. As the nation prepares for 2030, policymakers must develop a strategy to better count every person or effectively restrict illegal immigrants from participation.
As the 2030 Census approaches, Florida TaxWatch encourages residents to take action to prepare by:
1) Staying up to date on census-related issues (see more from the Florida TaxWatch Census Institute),
2) Spreading awareness about the importance of decennial census,
3) Using your voice to encourage involvement by businesses and government officials, and
4) Investing in the community through philanthropic organizations or grassroot efforts that help residents complete their census surveys.
To learn more and access previous reports, please click here.
About Florida TaxWatch
As an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit government watchdog and taxpayer research institute, and the trusted “eyes and ears” of Florida taxpayers for more than 45 years, Florida TaxWatch (FTW) works to improve the productivity and accountability of Florida government. Its research recommends productivity enhancements and explains the statewide impact of fiscal and economic policies and practices on taxpayers and businesses. FTW is supported by its membership via voluntary, tax-deductible donations and private grants. Donations provide a solid, lasting foundation that has enabled FTW to bring about a more effective, responsive government that is more accountable to, and productive for, the taxpayers it has served since 1979. For more information, please visit www.floridataxwatch.org.
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