Tallahassee, Fla. – Today, Florida TaxWatch released Florida Economic Forecast: 2024 – 2030 / Q3 2024, the third economic commentary in their quarterly series. The data upon which these forecasts are based are provided through a partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group (REC Group), a research-based consulting firm that provides economic studies to help guide and inform business leaders and policymakers.
Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro said, “Fueled by a strong global presence in tourism, trade, and real estate development, Florida’s economy has grown to nearly $1.5 trillion. Despite this impressive growth, Florida slipped from the fifteenth largest economy in the world to the sixteenth, which is why Florida TaxWatch continues to examine if Florida’s impressive economic growth is sustainable over the next several years.”
Florida TaxWatch Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp said, “Florida TaxWatch uses several contributing factors, including population and net migration, employment, GDP and income growth, and tourism, to forecast Florida’s economy through 2030. While Florida began 2024 with strong economic growth trends that outpaced the rest of the country, it is imperative that we continue to closely monitor growth patterns every quarter and adjust government spending accordingly.”
The key takeaways from the report include the following outliers.
Population and Net Migration: Florida’s population is projected to increase by about 1.45 million people (to 24.8 million) from 2025 to 2030. Although the state’s overall population is projected to continue to increase, the number of people moving to Florida each day is projected to decrease. This reflects a shift in the balance between people moving into Florida due to an abundance of natural amenities, low cost of living, and no personal income tax, and people moving out of Florida to states like Georgia, Texas, and North Carolina.
Employment: There are not enough unemployed Floridians to fill all of the current job openings. The number of employed Floridians is projected to increase from 9.9 million in 2024 to 10.6 million in 2030. During this same period, Florida’s unemployment rate is projected to increase from 3.5 percent in 2024 to 3.9 percent in 2026 and then decrease to 3.6 percent in 2030. The projected unemployment rate for 2025 as of Q3 2024 is 0.4 percentage points higher than reported in Q2 2024.
GDP and Income Growth: Florida had a real GDP growth rate of 3.5 percent in 2024; however, it is projected to decrease to 3.0 percent by 2030. The difference between the growth rate of Florida’s GDP and the real GDP is becoming smaller. This suggests that the rate of inflation is expected to decrease in the coming years. Unlike the projections in Q1 and Q2 of 2024, Q3 2024 studies show that the spending capabilities of Floridians will gradually decline or stay stagnant in the coming years.
Tourism: Florida’s tourism is projected to increase steadily through 2028, and Florida’s tourism industry is projected to continue its strong growth through 2030, with more visitors expected each year. Tourism directly supports 2.1 million jobs and is responsible for $76.4 billion in employee wages. Due to the revenue tourism generates, every Florida household saves $1,910 a year on state and local taxes.
Overall, Florida’s economy is now set to return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next five years, after experiencing high economic growth in the past three years.
To learn more and access the full commentary, including Florida TaxWatch’s Florida Economic Forecast 2023-28, Q1 2024 and Florida Economic Forecast: 2023-2028 / Q2 2024, please click here.
About Florida TaxWatch
As an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit government watchdog and taxpayer research institute, and the trusted “eyes and ears” of Florida taxpayers for more than 45 years, Florida TaxWatch (FTW) works to improve the productivity and accountability of Florida government. Its research recommends productivity enhancements and explains the statewide impact of fiscal and economic policies and practices on taxpayers and businesses. FTW is supported by its membership via voluntary, tax-deductible donations and private grants. Donations provide a solid, lasting foundation that has enabled FTW to bring about a more effective, responsive government that is more accountable to, and productive for, the taxpayers it has served since 1979. For more information, please visit www.floridataxwatch.org.
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