FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Thursday, September 25, 2025
CONTACT: Christina Johnson
Tallahassee, Fla. – Today, Florida TaxWatch released its economic commentary: Florida Economic Forecast: 2025 – 2034 / Q2 2025. The data upon which these forecasts are based are provided through a partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group (REC Group), a research-based consulting firm that provides economic studies to help guide and inform business leaders and policymakers.
Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro said, “Fueled by a strong global presence in tourism, trade, and real estate development, Florida’s economy has grown to $1.76 trillion in the first quarter of 2025. Moreover, Florida’s economy is now set to return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next five years, after experiencing high economic growth in the past three years. While Florida entered 2025 with strong growth trends, ranking number one in terms of economic strength, Florida TaxWatch continues to question whether Florida’s impressive economic growth is sustainable over the next several years.”
Florida TaxWatch Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp said, “Florida’s unemployment rate remains below the national rate in 2025; while it appears that both the U.S. rate and Florida rate will remain above 4.1 percent through 2030. Overall, Florida’s economic growth matches the national economic growth pattern in most economic indicators for the next five years. This is encouraging news as Florida TaxWatch continues to monitor our state’s economy through the year 2034 and beyond.”
The key takeaways from this Q2 report include the following outliers.
Population and Net Migration: Florida’s population is projected to increase by about 2.3 million people (from 23.4 million to 25.7 million) from 2025 to 2034. Although the state’s overall population is projected to continue to increase, the number of new people moving to Florida (after subtracting those moving out of Florida) each day is projected to decrease from 891 in 2025 to 705 in 2034. This reflects a shift in the balance between people moving into Florida and people moving out of Florida. Recently, an increasing number of Floridians are leaving the state, often citing increased costs of living, rising property taxes, rising property and automobile insurance, rising housing costs, and more frequent and severe weather events as reasons for leaving. Top destinations for those leaving Florida are either states with no personal income tax (e.g., Tennessee, Texas) or a lower cost of living than Florida (e.g., Georgia, North Carolina).
Employment: The number of employed Floridians is projected to increase from 10.1 million in 2025 to 11.6 million in 2034. During this same period, Florida’s unemployment rate is projected to increase from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 4.5 percent until 2027, before decreasing slowly back to 4.0 percent by 2034. Like the 2025 Q1 forecast – this forecast shows an increase in the unemployment rate until 2027 and then a gradual decrease until 2034. The projected unemployment rate for 2025 as of Q2 2025 is the same as reported in Q1 2025.
GDP and Income Growth: Florida is expected to have a real GDP growth rate of 2.4 percent in 2025, which is projected to decrease to 1.2 percent by 2034. Comparing the difference in the growth rate of Florida’s GDP and real GDP, one can see that the difference is becoming bigger in the long run. This suggests that the rate of inflation is expected to increase until 2028, before decreasing temporarily and finally seeing a stagnant increase in the coming years.
Tourism: In 2024, Florida had a record number of visitors to the state – totaling more than 142.9 million. Although Florida’s tourism industry is expected to grow, it is projected to take a hit this year, as a possible result of uncertainty regarding new trade policies. Tourism is projected to drop this year—with a negative growth rate of 1.2 percent. Although tourism is projected to drop, Florida saw a record number of visitors—34.3 million—in Q2 of 2025. The growth rate of visitors is projected to increase until 2028 before decreasing again, to a negative growth rate of 0.4 percent by 2034.
To learn more and access the full commentary, including Florida TaxWatch’s previous Economic Forecasts, please click here.
About Florida TaxWatch
As an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit government watchdog and taxpayer research institute, and the trusted “eyes and ears” of Florida taxpayers for more than 45 years, Florida TaxWatch (FTW) works to improve the productivity and accountability of Florida government. Its research recommends productivity enhancements and explains the statewide impact of fiscal and economic policies and practices on taxpayers and businesses. FTW is supported by its membership via voluntary, tax-deductible donations and private grants. Donations provide a solid, lasting foundation that has enabled FTW to bring about a more effective, responsive government that is more accountable to, and productive for, the taxpayers it has served since 1979. For more information, please visit www.floridataxwatch.org.
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