Florida’s Budget Outlook: Is the Party Over? Long-Range Financial Outlook Forecasts Coming Budget Deficits

Budget Watch | October 2024

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps

Florida's Budget Watch report highlights a shift from surpluses to potential deficits starting in FY 2026-27. Despite strong revenue collections, rising costs in education and Medicaid could lead to a $6.9 billion deficit by FY 2027-28. The report emphasizes the need for legislative action now to prevent future financial challenges. Download the full report for more details.

Florida Economic Forecast: Q2 2024

An Economic Commentary

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development

Florida's economy reached $1.58 trillion in 2023, but growth is expected to slow in the coming years. The report covers key projections, including slower population growth, a slight rise in unemployment, and continued tourism growth, with over 170 million visitors expected by 2029. Despite the slower pace, Florida’s economy remains robust, driven by tourism and real estate. Download the full report for a detailed analysis and outlook through 2029.

From Roads to Roots: A Review of Florida’s Highway Landscape Spending

/ Categories: Research, Transportation

Florida TaxWatch's latest report reviews FDOT's highway landscaping expenditures, which exceed $200 million annually. While the beautification projects provide key benefits like reducing erosion and enhancing safety, the report questions the lack of a spending cap. It explores potential legislative changes to optimize taxpayer investment. Download the full report for insights into these recommendations and the future of Florida’s highway landscaping policies.

Florida’s Water Supply: Could Florida Experience a Significant Water Supply Shortage by 2025?

A Florida TaxWatch Commentary

/ Categories: Research

This commentary highlights a looming water crisis in the Sunshine State. Despite its reputation for abundant water resources, Florida could face a significant water supply shortage as early as 2025, according to projections from the Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research. The report estimates that $1.7 billion in investments for critical water projects is needed by 2040 to avoid a severe shortage. This challenge is exacerbated by Florida's rapid economic and population growth, with an expected 26.4 million residents by 2040. The commentary criticizes current water project funding processes as disjointed and inconsistent, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive statewide strategy. It also discusses recent legislative efforts and proposes solutions, including the implementation of a Five-Year Water Project Work Program.

Social Determinants of Health: Education Access and Quality

/ Categories: Research, Education

The Florida TaxWatch Institute on Quality Health and Aging presents its latest report on the connection between education and health outcomes. This study, part of a series on Social Determinants of Health, reveals how higher education levels correlate with better health, longer lifespans, and reduced healthcare costs. The report explores the economic impact of education on public health and state budgets, emphasizing the importance of early childhood education. It offers valuable insights for policymakers, healthcare professionals, and educators, aiming to guide policies that improve health outcomes and economic prosperity for all Floridians. Download the full report to learn how investing in education can significantly impact Florida's public health and economic future.

An Independent Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Indian River State College

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development

The Florida TaxWatch report reveals the substantial economic and educational contributions of Indian River State College (IRSC) to Florida's Treasure Coast and the broader state economy. IRSC, recognized for its affordability and high-quality programs, plays a pivotal role in workforce development through its extensive certificate and degree offerings. The report emphasizes the college's efforts in minimizing student debt and enhancing job readiness through strategic partnerships with businesses and local schools. Economically, IRSC creates over 15,000 jobs annually and generates a significant economic output, with every dollar spent translating into a substantial return for the Florida economy. This analysis serves as a crucial resource for understanding the intersection of education and economic growth, and the strategic role of community colleges like IRSC in fostering regional economic development.

Budget Watch: Florida Revenue Estimators Increase Forecast for the Ninth Consecutive Time, Adding $2 Billion to State Coffers

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps

Florida's revenue forecast has been updated, adding $2 billion more to the state's budget for the next two years. This is the ninth consecutive increase, driven by strong investment earnings, sales taxes, and corporate income taxes. Despite earlier predictions of slowed growth, revenues continue to exceed expectations, but there are potential risks on the horizon.

 

Briefing: Are Floridians Ready to Go Back to School? Not Without More Teachers…

2024 Update

/ Categories: Research, Education

Florida faces a critical teacher shortage, ranking 50th in teacher pay nationwide. Our briefing reveals alarming trends: 10% of courses lack properly certified teachers, and teacher pay has dropped 15.7% in real terms over the past decade. With Florida needing 9.7% more teachers by 2031, the state's educational future hangs in the balance. Our comprehensive report explores the root causes of this crisis, from inadequate compensation to mounting stress, and examines recent policy actions. More importantly, it offers concrete solutions to attract and retain quality educators.

The Taxpayer's Guide to Florida's FY2024-25 State Budget

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Taxpayer Guide

Florida TaxWatch is pleased to present taxpayers with a guide to the FY2024-25 state budget, which went into effect July 1, 2024. The 2024 Legislature appropriated a total of $118.6 billion for FY2024-25. This Budget Guide includes all appropriations for the new fiscal year— the General Appropriations Act (GAA), “back-of-the-bill” spending, and appropriations made in general bills—net of the Governor’s vetoes.

Briefing: Florida's Property Insurance Market

/ Categories: Research, Hurricane Ian, Insurance

Explore the latest insights from Florida TaxWatch's "Property Insurance Briefing" as it delves into the complexities of Florida's property insurance market amidst the 2024 hurricane season. This report examines the instability caused by soaring premiums, driven by litigation and hurricane damages, and discusses the role of Citizens Property Insurance as a critical safety net for over a million Floridians. Highlighting legislative efforts to stabilize the market and initiatives like home hardening to reduce costs, this briefing is essential for anyone affected by or interested in Florida's property insurance challenges. Download the full report for a comprehensive analysis and actionable solutions.

Monitoring and Oversight of General Obligation Bonds to Improve Broward County Schools

Q3 (2023-2024)

/ Categories: Research, Broward BOC

The Q3 2024 Broward Bond Oversight report highlights significant progress in the SMART Program, with major advancements in technology, safety, and athletics in Broward County schools. All planned technology upgrades and safety projects are complete, improving the student-to-computer ratio and securing campuses. Despite these successes, challenges in renovations persist, with 29 projects likely to miss the October 2025 completion deadline. Leadership transitions and budget adjustments add further complexity. Florida TaxWatch plays a vital role in ensuring transparency and the efficient use of funds, continuing to oversee the program and provide recommendations to address ongoing challenges.

Social Determinants of Health: Health Care Access and Quality

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development, Health Care

This report examines the social determinants of health (SDOH), underscoring that environmental and social factors are the primary determinants of health outcomes. Significant barriers to healthcare access include high insurance costs and a large uninsured population, contributing to Florida's low national ranking in healthcare access. Challenges are particularly acute in rural and low-income areas, with a notable dependence on emergency services by uninsured individuals, imposing considerable economic strains.

To address these issues, the report suggests expanding Medicaid eligibility to enhance access and reduce costs, promoting telehealth to connect urban and rural communities, increasing autonomy for nurse practitioners and physician assistants to alleviate physician shortages, and implementing the "Live Healthy Agenda" to elevate healthcare quality and access throughout Florida. These recommendations aim to catalyze systemic changes for a healthier, economically stable state.

Principal Leadership Awards Roundtable Summary 2024

/ Categories: Research

The Principal Leadership Awards Roundtable Summary highlights the contributions of 15 outstanding principals who have significantly influenced student achievement under challenging conditions. This document explores effective strategies in teacher retention, school culture, and community engagement, drawn from a roundtable discussion of award-winning principals. It offers practical insights and research-backed recommendations to enhance educational outcomes. Educators and leaders are encouraged to access and utilize this report to foster educational excellence across Florida.

2024 Budget Turkey Watch Report

An analysis of the transparency and accountability of the budget process

/ Categories: Research, Budget Turkeys

Florida TaxWatch is proud to present the 2024 Budget Turkey Watch Report, an annual independent review that has been a staple since 1983. This report scrutinizes the Florida FY2024-25 budget, identifying appropriations that bypass established legislative procedures. Known as Budget Turkeys, these appropriations often serve limited areas, are not core state functions, or circumvent competitive bidding and oversight.

Florida Taxpayer Independence Day 2024

/ Categories: Research, Taxpayer Guide

In 2024, Floridians will spend an average of 107 days working to pay off their tax obligations. The state's total tax burden is estimated at $455 billion, with federal, state, and local taxes accounting for 71%, 15%, and 14%, respectively. Over the past decade, total taxes paid by Floridians have increased by 90%. Despite the challenges, Florida's state tax burden remains one of the lowest in the nation. Download the full report to learn more about the tax landscape in Florida.

“If You Build It, He Will Come”: Florida TaxWatch Looks At The Tampa Bay Rays’ Ballpark Proposal

/ Categories: Research, Local Government

This report analyzes the key aspects of the deal and identifies critical questions that local officials should consider before deciding whether the proposed ballpark is in the best interest of taxpayers.

The report does not draw conclusions on the merits of the deal but instead focuses on outlining the important factors that need to be weighed, such as the total public costs, the best use of public funds, and the fairness of the cost-sharing agreement. While the project is expected to generate significant economic impacts over 30 years, research shows that the benefits of publicly subsidized sports facilities are often overstated.

To learn more about this critical issue affecting the Tampa Bay region, download the full report for an in-depth, independent analysis.

2020 Census – How Florida Counties Compare

/ Categories: Research, Census

"2020 Census Participation: How Florida Counties Compare," provides valuable insights into census participation across the state in 2020 and emphasizes the importance of securing a complete count in the upcoming 2030 Census.

The report examines key metrics, highlights the costly impacts of undercounts, and outlines actionable steps businesses and individuals can take now to support a complete count.

With Census Day 2030 approaching, the time to prepare is now. Download the full report to learn more and discover how you can help ensure Florida receives its fair share of federal funding and representation.

2024 Florida Legislative Session Wrap-Up

The 2024 Florida Legislative Session Wrap-Up offers a concise yet thorough review of the session's key outcomes. With a $117.5 billion budget, over $1 billion in tax relief, and nearly $10 billion in reserves, the Legislature addressed crucial issues in healthcare, education, insurance, and the environment. The report provides an insightful overview of the bills and budget items that passed, as well as notable legislation that failed to advance, making it an essential resource for understanding the current state of Florida policy and its implications for residents and taxpayers.

Monitoring and Oversight of General Obligation Bonds to Improve Broward County Schools

Q2 (2023-2024)

/ Categories: Research, Broward BOC

This report for the Broward Bond Oversight Committee offers an insightful overview of the SMART Program's achievements and challenges as it progresses into its tenth year. Broward County Public Schools (BCPS) remains committed to enhancing educational facilities, technology, safety, arts, and athletics through the strategic use of General Obligation Bond funds. Despite facing unforeseen challenges, the program is on track, with significant milestones reached in school safety enhancements and technology upgrades, ensuring an enriched learning environment for students. Financial oversight and community engagement are emphasized as key elements in maintaining transparency and accountability. As BCPS navigates through these complexities, the report underscores a collective effort towards fulfilling the promises made to the community, aiming for the complete execution of the SMART Program by October 31, 2025.

Session Summary: 2024 Taxpayer Roundup

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps

The Florida TaxWatch's 2024 Legislative Session Taxpayer Roundup report provides a comprehensive overview of significant tax legislation in Florida, highlighting nearly $1 billion in tax relief measures, including toll credits and potential property tax savings through a proposed constitutional amendment. Key successes include substantial tax cuts, sales tax holidays, and new tax credits aimed at supporting employment and child care.

Unleashing Digital Transformation: 2023 MakeMore Manufacturing Summit Summary Report

/ Categories: Research, Manufacturing

The 2023 MakeMore Manufacturing Summit Report delves into the significance of digital transformation in Florida's manufacturing sector. It provides a comprehensive overview of current challenges, opportunities, and advancements within the industry, with a particular focus on the adoption of new technologies for enhanced value and profitability. Tailored for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and interested parties, the report highlights the summit's collaborative efforts to drive economic growth and job creation in Florida. It serves as a crucial resource for understanding the future direction of manufacturing in the state and underscores the importance of innovation and technology in maintaining competitive edge and fostering a robust manufacturing ecosystem.

Every Child A Swimmer Update

/ Categories: Research

The "Every Child A Swimmer" report by Florida TaxWatch highlights the high rates of child drownings in Florida, emphasizing the need for widespread swimming education and water safety measures. It advocates for legislative support to enhance water safety and prevent such incidents, stressing their economic and emotional impact.

Florida’s Labor Market Continues Cooling Down at a Slow Rate

/ Categories: Research, Blog

This Florida TaxWatch blog examines labor market changes amid the Covid-19 pandemic, with a focus on the U.S. and Florida. It notes a national slowdown in job openings, with a stable 3.7% unemployment rate, contrasting with Florida's lower 2.9% rate and job gains in most sectors. The data suggests a cooling labor market, but not enough to significantly impact inflation. Despite Federal Reserve efforts to slow the economy, there are still more jobs than unemployed persons nationally. Experts no longer anticipate a recession, but inflation concerns persist, especially if the Federal Reserve changes interest rates.

2024 Update: Long-Term Rental Markets In Florida

/ Categories: Research, Housing Affordability

This Florida TaxWatch commentary highlights the imbalance between the demand and supply of rental units in the state, leading to rising rental costs. The document notes significant increases in rental prices since the pandemic, with specific emphasis on metropolitan areas like Miami, Tampa, and Jacksonville. It also addresses the impact of these rising costs on Florida's workforce and economy, including the implications for cost-burdened households. The paper further examines state-to-state migration trends, particularly focusing on Florida residents moving to Georgia for more affordable housing options. The overall narrative suggests a complex interplay between economic factors, housing market dynamics, and demographic shifts in Florida's rental market.

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