With state coffers already swelling, the General Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) met on January 21, 2022, to develop the state’s new forecast for general revenue (GR) collections. This is the revenue estimate that the 2022 Legislature will use for the new FY2022-23 state budget. The REC increased its estimate for GR collections by $3.3 billion in the current year (FY2021-22) and by $704 million in FY 2022-23. This means lawmakers have another $4 billion available to spend. Florida was already in its best fiscal shape in history.

INFLATION IS HARDLY A NEW PHENOMENON EXCLUSIVE TO THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC; however, for decades preceding the pandemic, price increases were a subtle and often unnoticed component of the economy. The last time inflation posed a serious and prolonged threat to economic growth—in the early 1980s—Ronald Reagan was the president, the Iranian Hostage Crisis had ended, and Indiana Jones: Raiders of the Lost Ark made its theater debut. The early 1980s signified the end of what economists called “The Great Inflation” period in U.S. history.

The 2022 Florida Legislature is debating two pieces of legislation that add to the process of passing local ordinances and provides additional rights to businesses and residents who wish to challenge those ordinances. This Session Spotlight takes a detailed look at SB620/CS/HB569 & CS/SB280/HB403.

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of access to reliable and affordable high-quality broadband Internet service to our daily lives. Communities that currently lack access to the affordable, reliable, high-quality broadband Internet that is necessary for full participation in education, health care, employment, social services and government programs, and civic life are at a marked disadvantage without that access. To help ensure that all Florida communities have access to reliable and affordable high-quality broadband Internet service Florida TaxWatch recommends the following:

This working paper is an endeavor to learn more about Florida’s labor force participation rate of women. Exploring reasons for women’s absence from the workforce can help Florida better understand the needs of its entire workforce. As a working paper, Florida TaxWatch hopes to start a discussion and encourage others to offer their insights about women’s absence from the workforce.

An increasingly technological and information-driven economy generally requires higher levels of educational achievement for both individual and community success. To sustain continued economic growth and competitiveness, Florida must maintain a workforce with the types of skills— trade and professional—that can attract high-wage, high-value industries.

The story of Florida TaxWatch in 2021 was one of taxpayer victories and a hand in the recovery of one of the world’s (14th if Florida were a country) biggest economies.

Often overlooked in favor of more eye-catching employment headlines such as unemployment rates and job creation numbers, job quitting rates are an indispensable part of understanding the overall economic recovery. Newly released national data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveal the number of people quitting their jobs in November 2021 hit a record high of 4.5 million—far above any other level on record since data first started being recorded. Since the summer of 2021, a collective 21.3 million individuals have quit their jobs across the nation.

Fiscally, Florida is in good condition. This is also true of the state’s debt position. FY 2020-21 marks the eighth consecutive year with a debt ratio below the 6 percent target.

As the Florida TaxWatch Budget Watch series1 has been detailing, the budget outlook for the state is extremely rosy. Governor DeSantis’s 2022-23 budget recommendations reflect the current fiscal environment. It totals $99.7 billion and just like the current budget, the price tag does not fully account for all the spending it contains.

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA),1 signed by President Biden on November 15, 2021, will make a significant investment in the nation’s transportation system and other infrastructure. Billions of dollars will be distributed to the states for a wide range of projects, including all modes of transportation, broadband, cyber security, water infrastructure, energy, climate change, resiliency, and pollution mitigation. Florida will get a sizable chunk of these funds.

On November 26, 2021, Florida TaxWatch received the Bond Oversight Committee Quarterly Report for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2021 (“Quarterly Report”). This report provides updated information on the implementation of the District’s SMART Program and the use of general obligation bond funds to purchase and install technology upgrades, purchase music, and art equipment, improve school safety, upgrade athletic facilities, and renovate educational facilities.

IT WAS NOT LONG AGO THAT FLORIDA WAS TURNING THE PAGE FROM A TUMULTUOUS 2020 and preparing for a much-awaited economic rebound throughout 2021.

For more than a year, Floridians have experienced first-hand the changes, challenges and, in many cases, the frustrations that arise when a pandemic affects global trade. 

The Florida TaxWatch Budget Watch series has been detailing the rapid recovery of the state government’s revenue collections from the initial precipitous drop in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. We have highlighted how current General Revenue (GR) estimates are back above the last pre-pandemic estimates. Coupled with billions of dollars in federal aid, Florida is in enviable fiscal shape as the Legislature heads into the 2022 Regular Session.

There are times when we are uncertain what will happen if a particular public policy is implemented. A proposal in Congress about cuts in interchange fees on credit cards is not one of them.

Have you ever wondered how Florida’s taxes stack up against the taxes in other states? If so, this report is for you.

Federal corporate income tax reform, which had the general aim of broadening the base and lowering the rate, has reduced the federal tax burden on many corporations. However, since Florida adopted most of the base expansion measures without a concurrent rate reduction, federal tax reform has resulted in increased taxes at the state level, even after subsequent state refunds and rate cuts.

With more than 8,400 miles of coastline and a flat, low-lying coastal topography, Florida is especially vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise. Tens of thousands of Florida homes and businesses are at increased risk from sea level rise. Much of Florida’s critical infrastructure is at low elevations, designed and built with little consideration of future sea level rise. The physical effect of changing climate translates into real economic impacts.

As unexpected and unpredictable as COVID-19 has been, few could have predicted the housing boom that the pandemic ignited across the nation. The U.S. housing market—notoriously known for its role in the 2007-2009 Great Recession—defied expectations and experienced record price growth over the past year as demographic trends, government policies, and basic supply and demand all coalesced. In the short term, soaring home prices have been well-documented both analytically and anecdotally.

The massive amount of federal funding provided in the six stimulus acts provides an unprecedented opportunity to improve Florida and fund programs and infrastructure that have had long-standing backlogs with few past feasible opportunities to address to this degree.

Florida TaxWatch undertakes this updated, independent assessment to better understand the economic impacts that consumer data privacy legislation would have in Florida. The report details the individual cost components that would comprise compliance activities. Building upon the previous research brief, this report calculates the potential economic cost of litigation that a private right of action would produce. The recommendations contained at the end of the report provide policymakers with some key considerations to minimize adverse outcomes while attaining the core goal of data privacy.

Just as the nation was entering a new phase of the COVID-19 pandemic—one where vaccination rates were rising and pent-up demand for travel started to unleash during the summer—the contagious delta variant exposed tourism’s lingering economic vulnerability. 

There has been an ideological debate regarding economic development incentives brewing in the Legislature for several years. The Qualified Target Industry (QTI) Tax Refund Program is a performance-based program that refunds some of the taxes a business has already paid, but only after it is verified that the contracted requirements have been met, including the promised increase in high-wage jobs.

On September 17, 2021, Florida TaxWatch received the Bond Oversight Committee Quarterly Report for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2021 (“Quarterly Report”). This report provides updated information on the implementation of the District’s SMART Program and the use of general obligation bond funds to purchase and install technology upgrades, purchase music and arts equipment, improve school safety, upgrade athletic facilities, and renovate educational facilities.