The TaxWatch Research Blog

Florida's Budget Watch report highlights a shift from surpluses to potential deficits starting in FY 2026-27. Despite strong revenue collections, rising costs in education and Medicaid could lead to a $6.9 billion deficit by FY 2027-28. The report emphasizes the need for legislative action now to prevent future financial challenges. Download the full report for more details.

Florida's revenue forecast has been updated, adding $2 billion more to the state's budget for the next two years. This is the ninth consecutive increase, driven by strong investment earnings, sales taxes, and corporate income taxes. Despite earlier predictions of slowed growth, revenues continue to exceed expectations, but there are potential risks on the horizon.

Florida TaxWatch is pleased to present taxpayers with a guide to the FY2024-25 state budget, which went into effect July 1, 2024. The 2024 Legislature appropriated a total of $118.6 billion for FY2024-25. This Budget Guide includes all appropriations for the new fiscal year— the General Appropriations Act (GAA), “back-of-the-bill” spending, and appropriations made in general bills—net of the Governor’s vetoes.

The 2024 Florida Legislative Session Wrap-Up offers a concise yet thorough review of the session's key outcomes. With a $117.5 billion budget, over $1 billion in tax relief, and nearly $10 billion in reserves, the Legislature addressed crucial issues in healthcare, education, insurance, and the environment. The report provides an insightful overview of the bills and budget items that passed, as well as notable legislation that failed to advance, making it an essential resource for understanding the current state of Florida policy and its implications for residents and taxpayers.

The Florida TaxWatch's 2024 Legislative Session Taxpayer Roundup report provides a comprehensive overview of significant tax legislation in Florida, highlighting nearly $1 billion in tax relief measures, including toll credits and potential property tax savings through a proposed constitutional amendment. Key successes include substantial tax cuts, sales tax holidays, and new tax credits aimed at supporting employment and child care.

This is the Florida TaxWatch annual independent review of Florida’s FY2023-24 budget process. The report was started in 1983 and promotes oversight and integrity in the state’s budgeting process based on the principle that: because money appropriated by the Legislature belongs to the taxpayers of Florida, the process must be thorough, thoughtful, transparent, and accountable.  Every appropriation should receive proper deliberation and public scrutiny.  This includes member-requested projects.  

Florida’s new state budget for FY2023-24 carries a price tag of $117.0 billion, which is a 6.2 percent increase over current spending. The budget also contains a few billion dollars in spending that is technically appropriated for FY2022-23, so it is not included in the $117.0 billion total. 

Ten years ago, the Legislature began a budgeting practice that is not in the interest of sound budgeting, transparency, thoughtful deliberation, or the taxpayers of Florida. The practice in question is the introduction of Supplemental Funding lists. These have - come to be commonly known, and even referred to by legislators, as the “Sprinkle Lists” – as in the “sprinkling” of millions of additional dollars for appropriations projects around the state at the last-minute during budget conference. 

The annual Florida TaxWatch Budget Turkey Watch Report was started in 1983 and promotes oversight and integrity in the state’s budgeting process. The report identifies appropriations that circumvent proper review, transparency, and accountability standards and is presented to the Governor for inclusion in his or her veto considerations

Florida has been making very large investments in the protection and restoration of the state’s water resources. On his second day in office, Governor Ron DeSantis issued an Executive Order making water a top priority. The Executive Order called for funding of $2.5 billion over four years—$625 million a year—to significantly expedite Everglades restoration and enhance the protection of our water systems. This goal was surpassed, with $3.3 billion appropriated by the Florida Legislature in the last four years for specific key water funding in addition to hundreds of millions more in water-related appropriations also in the state budget.

In what has been a regular occurrence, the Florida General Revenue (GR) Estimating Conference significantly increased the estimate of the amount of GR that will be collected. This is the sixth conference in a row that has produced a rosier revenue forecast. The last reduced estimate came at the August 2020 conference, just as the coronavirus pandemic began its relatively short-lived slowdown of Florida’s revenue collections.

The six percent sales and use tax is Florida state government’s largest revenue sourceby far, currently bringing in approximately $36 billion annually. When the almost $6 billion in local option sales tax collections is included with the state tax, the $42 billion total collections make the sales tax the number one tax source for all Florida governments, topping the $40 billion local property tax.

Florida’s general revenue (GR) collections continue their remarkable growth, beating the state’s estimates and adding more and more money for the Legislature to spend. GR collections exceeded expectations in December by $530.5 million.

Florida has remained in good financial standing this past fiscal year. This is also true of the state’s debt position. FY 2021-22 marks the ninth consecutive year with a debt ratio below the six percent target established by the Legislature. In addition:

As Florida TaxWatch has been detailing in our Budget Watch series,1 the state’s fiscal circumstances have been steadily improving since the initial shock (and resultant revenue loss) at the beginning of the pandemic. Even with historic state spending and tax cuts over the last two budgets, record reserves still exist. Florida’s tax system continues to produce revenue at a breakneck pace, with actual collections beating the estimate in each month over the last two year. Lately, the magnitude of the overage has been staggering. In the last three months of FY2021-22 (April-June), collections exceeded estimates by $2.545 billion (23.9 percent).

The Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) met on August 16, 2022, to develop the state’s new forecast for general revenue (GR) collections. After the close of FY2021-22, which wildly exceed revenue expectations, the REC increased the estimates for FY2022-23 and 2023-24 by a total of $5.3 billion.

Florida’s housing market is raging, with growth in property values not seen since the housing bubble. Property appraisers certified the state’s taxable value for 2022 on July 1 and these values are currently being used by local governments and school districts in setting new property tax rates and developing budgets for FY 2022-23. The growth in property values has set the stage for what could be significant tax increases for Florida’s citizens and businesses.

Florida TaxWatch is pleased to present taxpayers with a guide to the FY2022-23 state budget, which went into effect July 1, 2022. The report includes all appropriations for the new fiscal year— the General Appropriations Act (GAA), “back-of-bill” spending, and general bills—net of the Governor’s vetoes.

The $112.1 billion budget passed by the Florida Legislature for FY2022-23 contains 166 appropriations items worth $281.0 million qualifying as Budget Turkeys. These are only a portion of the record-setting more than 1,200 member projects in the new budget worth $2.8 billion. In addition, the Legislature created a new program to allow members to request at least $80 million in additional local projects from the federal State Fiscal Recovery Fund.

The 2022 legislative session is over, even if it ran a little long. Florida TaxWatch and the state’s taxpayers had a number of successes. Many bills and budget issues supported by our research and recommendations passed. Our research and input that raised concerns with legislation, helped to improve them or fail passage, including changes to the tax audit system and a very costly approach to improving data privacy

The House and Senate have passed their respective budgets and now must hold budget conference meetings to hammer out the differences. An agreement must be reached on every number and every word in the 400-plus page appropriations bill. Budget negotiations are never easy and this year will be no exception, even with so much money available.

With state coffers already swelling, the General Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) met on January 21, 2022, to develop the state’s new forecast for general revenue (GR) collections. This is the revenue estimate that the 2022 Legislature will use for the new FY2022-23 state budget. The REC increased its estimate for GR collections by $3.3 billion in the current year (FY2021-22) and by $704 million in FY 2022-23. This means lawmakers have another $4 billion available to spend. Florida was already in its best fiscal shape in history.

The 2022 legislative session begins today and, despite the pandemic, Florida is in an enviable fiscal position. The state’s current budget is record in size, as are our budget reserves. Revenue collections are back above pre-pandemic levels, and this Legislature will have even more money available for the next budget cycle, made possible by both strong economic performance and billions in unappropriated federal funds.

As the Florida TaxWatch Budget Watch series1 has been detailing, the budget outlook for the state is extremely rosy. Governor DeSantis’s 2022-23 budget recommendations reflect the current fiscal environment. It totals $99.7 billion and just like the current budget, the price tag does not fully account for all the spending it contains.