The TaxWatch Research Blog

Goodwill’s Economic and Workforce Impact in Florida: FY 2024 quantifies how the Florida Goodwill Association and its nine territories convert donated goods and mission-driven operations into jobs, higher earnings, and stronger local economies across the state. Using FY 2024 operational, employment, and capital spending data and the IMPLAN input-output model, Florida TaxWatch estimates that Goodwill generated $1.52 billion in total economic output, added $893.9 million to Florida’s GDP, and supported 21,471 jobs statewide.

The 2025 Florida TaxWatch Annual Report captures a milestone year: the culmination of Dominic M. Calabro’s decades of leadership and the announced transition to Lt. Governor Jeff Kottkamp as incoming President & CEO on January 1, 2026.

Since January 2025, the federal interest rate has remained unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The rates have been steady in hopes of curbing inflation and bringing it down to two percent, as unemployment numbers were not concerning until now. The latest revision data, however, will likely push the Federal Reserve to cut rates in their next meeting this month to 4.00 to 4.25 percent.

New EDR projections show a widening state funding gap—more than $50 million in FY 2025-26—with total demand still trending upward through 2045.

With the Trust Fund projected to face a nearly $1.7 billion shortfall by FY 2029-30 without action, Florida TaxWatch outlines a pragmatic path that reduces costs by treating pain more effectively—not just shifting them to employees.

Florida's economy, valued at $1.76 trillion, entered 2025 on a strong footing but is projected to see its growth moderate to pre-pandemic levels over the next decade. This forecast from Florida TaxWatch indicates a shift from the high growth of recent years to a more sustainable, albeit slower, pace. While the state's population is expected to increase by 2.3 million by 2034, the rate of new residents moving to Florida is projected to decline, influenced by rising living costs.

Florida's property tax system is at a critical juncture, with total levies surging by 108% over the last decade, far exceeding the combined rate of population growth and inflation. This rapid increase, generating $55 billion in 2024 for local governments, has intensified the financial strain on homeowners and raised fundamental questions about the nature of property ownership, which currently resembles a form of "perpetual rent" to the government. This report from Florida TaxWatch analyzes the current landscape and explores five distinct options for reform, ranging from the complete elimination of property taxes for homeowners to more immediate statutory changes aimed at increasing transparency and accountability.

Construction is a cornerstone of Florida's economy, contributing $97 billion (5.7 percent) to the state's GDP in 2024. However, rising material costs are presenting significant challenges to the industry, impacting everything from large-scale infrastructure projects to residential home building and affordability for Florida taxpayers. This report from Florida TaxWatch examines the national and statewide trends driving these price increases and their potential consequences.

Florida TaxWatch’s The Taxpayers’ Guide to Florida’s FY2025-26 State Budget explains the Legislature’s $114.8 billion spending plan (after $376 million in line-item vetoes)—a 3.2% decrease from FY2024-25—while maintaining $12.6 billion in reserves. General Revenue (GR) spending rises by $556 million, and the recurring GR base increases by $1.9 billion, even as total positions fall to 111,886 (-1,871).

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals explains how Florida’s 2020 Census undercount—about 750,000 residents (3.48%)—reduced the state’s political representation and likely cost billions of dollars in federal funding over the decade. The report examines what Florida stood to gain if the count had been accurate and how proposed changes to who is counted could affect future apportionment.

Florida has proven ideas, demonstrated wins, and active tools; now it needs permanence. By embedding efficiency into the annual budget cycle—backed by transparent tracking and regular reporting—the state can convert sporadic initiatives into sustained savings and better service delivery for taxpayers.

Principals are second only to teachers in their impact on student learning—and in Florida’s highest-need schools, effective leadership is the catalyst for outsize gains. Florida TaxWatch convened a roundtable on May 14, 2025 with the latest Principal Leadership Awards (PLA) winners to surface the strategies behind sustained improvement. Drawing on data-driven selection (FL-VAM) and firsthand practice, this summary distills what works and why it matters for schools serving predominantly at-risk students.

Florida continues to face a severe affordability gap in housing. In 2022, 35% of households were cost-burdened, and by 2024 the state was short more than 323,000 affordable units for households at 0–30% of Area Median Income (AMI). The Legislature’s 2023 Live Local Act—amended in 2024 and 2025—was designed to accelerate supply by combining incentives (notably property-tax exemptions) with strong preemption and streamlined approvals for qualifying projects. The law requires that at least 40% of units in eligible projects remain affordable for 30 years, and it allows multifamily development in commercial, industrial, or mixed-use zones without rezoning, subject to administrative review.

Florida's aging population is driving sustained demand for cost-effective, patient-centered care across the continuum. Palliative care—non-curative, interdisciplinary support for patients with serious but often nonterminal conditions—improves quality of life and can lower overall costs when introduced early in the disease course. Hospice provides end-of-life care once a clinician certifies a terminal prognosis; in Florida, hospice providers operate under a Certificate of Need (CON) program that authorizes new entrants only when unmet need is demonstrated through twice-yearly batching cycles.

Florida TaxWatch's 2025 Legislative Session Wrap-up Report provides a comprehensive analysis of Florida's extended legislative session that concluded June 16 with a $115.1 billion budget and $2.0 billion tax package. The Governor signed the budget on June 30 and issued $376 million in line-item vetoes, resulting in a net budget of $114.8 billion while maintaining strong fiscal reserves of $12.6 billion.

The Census Undercount Hurts Florida’s Political Influence, demonstrates that the 2020 Census missed about 750,000 Floridians — 3.48 % of the population. Correcting that error with U.S. Census Bureau methodology shows the undercount shifted three U.S. House seats nationally: Colorado, Minnesota, and Rhode Island would each lose a seat, while Florida, Tennessee, and Texas would each gain one — raising Florida’s delegation to 29 seats instead of 28.

The impact of childcare, as the data suggest, is prominent on Florida’s economy. Losses incurred from turnover and absenteeism of working parents can be avoided with friendlier workplace policies and higher investment in affordable childcare. As an important part of the industry, treating childcare workers better financially can help maintain the workforce in childcare and add to the economy of Florida. Impactful measures that can alleviate the pressing childcare issues mentioned can further grow Florida’s economy.

On April 2nd, 2025, a universal 10 percent tariff on all countries was announced by the federal government, with a few countries facing additional reciprocal tariffs of up to 50 percent. A week after the announcement, due to intense volatility in the bond market, a 90-day suspension on the tariffs was announced, with the exception of a 145 percent tariff on certain Chinese goods.

Florida TaxWatch’s 2025 Budget Turkey Watch Report delivers an independent, line-by-line review of Florida’s conference budget worth $115.1 billion. It identifies 238 appropriations totaling $413.5 million that bypassed established vetting procedures or public scrutiny—designating them as “Budget Turkeys”—and flags an additional $799.5 million in member projects that merit heightened executive review.

In 2020, Florida was one of six states with a statistically significant census undercount. Florida failed to count 3.48 percent of its total population (750,000 residents). The census count is used to apportion legislative seats and allocate federal funding. Florida’s census undercount cost the state at least one—potentially two—congressional seats and up to $21 billion in federal funding through the end of the decade.

Florida's economy has been growing to new heights these past years -- reaching nearly $1.5 trillion. The Q1 2025 economic forecast by Florida TaxWatch examines key trends in population growth, employment, income, GDP, and tourism, offering valuable insights for policymakers, business leaders, and taxpayers.

Florida TaxWatch’s 2025 Legislative Session Wrap-Up report provides a concise but comprehensive overview of the extraordinary budget impasse that extended this year’s session to June 6, 2025, the narrow scope of allowed legislation (including the General Appropriations Act, budget conforming bills, the House and Senate tax packages, and the Rural Renaissance bill), and the high-stakes negotiations that will resume on May 12 in conference committee.

Florida TaxWatch’s Florida Taxpayer Independence Day 2025 report commemorates the symbolic April 21 date when the average Floridian has earned enough to satisfy all federal, state, and local tax obligations. In 2025, Floridians spend 110 days—until 11:24 a.m.—paying taxes each year before they begin earning for themselves.

Florida TaxWatch's CST and Broadband Equipment report examines the impact of the high Communications Services Tax (CST) on broadband infrastructure investment and consumer expenses. The report details how Florida’s current CST ranks among the highest in the nation and explores its effects on both businesses and low-income households, who are particularly vulnerable to the disproportionate burden of such taxes on essential wireless services.

Proposed solutions include redistributing a portion of the sales tax collected at EV charging stations to the STTF and adopting a hybrid approach that combines higher registration fees with targeted EV taxes. These proposals aim to ensure that all drivers contribute their “fair share” toward maintaining Florida’s transportation infrastructure in the face of rapid technological change.