The TaxWatch Research Blog

The TaxWatch Research Blog is a forum where our research staff can address topics and issues in a short format. Keep an eye on this space during Legislative Session for frequent posts making sense of the activity at the Capitol. 

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps

State General Revenue Estimates Increase Again

CURRENT YEAR SURPLUS NOW $8.8 BILLION

The mild recession in the first half of 2023 that was anticipated by the state’s last economic forecast did not materialize, helping Florida’s General Revenue (GR) collections to continue to exceed expectations. And while the state’s economists say the economy is not out of the woods yet, conditions have stabilized, mitigating some of the uncertainty that forecasters have been facing.

The August 18 General Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) increased Florida’s general revenue projections by $1.567 billion (3.6 percent) in the current budget year and $1.203 billion (2.6 percent) in FY2024-25--a two-year total of $2.770 billion.  Add in the $1.084 billion that actual collections exceeded the previous estimate in the last four months of FY2022-23, and the Legislature has an additional $3.854 billion available for next state budget.  The new estimate accounts for the $1 billion reduction in revenues from 2023 tax relief and other legislative changes. 

The 2024 Legislature is now expected to have $56.358 billion in GR available for the next budget.  This is slightly less than total appropriations for this year, but this is due to the large amount of non-recurring spending in FY2023-24.  Available recurring GR is estimated to be $47.4 billion -- $5.7 billion over current recurring spending.

 

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