FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Tuesday, July 29, 2025
CONTACT: Christina Johnson
Tallahassee, Fla. – Today, Florida TaxWatch released The Census Undercount Limits Florida’s Political Influence report examining Florida’s history of census undercounts, the consequences on Florida’s loss of a congressional seat, and considerations to support the 2030 Census. This information is provided through Florida TaxWatch’s Census Institute: Ensuring A Complete Census Count In 2030, delivering data-driven analysis of the 2020 Census undercount to ensure every Floridian is accurately counted and represented in 2030.
Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro said, “In 2020, Florida was one of six states with a statistically significant census undercount. Florida missed an estimated 750,000 residents, 3.48 percent of its population. These failed-to-count residents were not considered in apportionment calculations, costing Florida taxpayers the representation they deserve. When Floridians aren’t counted, Florida’s voice in Congress and the White House gets quieter – and taxpayers pay the price.”
Florida TaxWatch Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp said, “Florida’s census undercount not only cost the state at least one congressional seat but also resulted in a loss of federal funding that will range from $11 billion to $21 billion by the end of the decade. Meanwhile, other states enjoyed census overcounts, potentially providing their residents with a greater share of representation. To maintain a fair democratic republic, every state should count its residents in the same way.”
In this briefing, Florida TaxWatch uses the U.S. Census Bureau’s Post-Enumeration Survey to calculate which states would have lost or gained a seat if populations were more accurately counted during the 2020 Census. Even if the U.S. Census Bureau finds inaccuracies, they cannot change the seats apportioned to each state. Using the most recent presidential election as an example, the briefing explores the political ramifications of the census miscount.
After ranking the priority values and identifying the highest 385 values, Florida TaxWatch identified three seats that shifted to different states (Table 1). If the census were more accurate, Colorado, Minnesota, and Rhode Island would each lose one seat. Florida, Tennessee, and Texas would each gain one seat.
Florida is one of the fastest growing states in the nation. Even with a perfect census count, Florida’s ratio of representatives to residents would again quickly grow out of proportion with other states midway through the decade. Florida taxpayers at least deserve a fair start.
For the census to be truly fair, every state must count their residents in the same way. Data suggest hesitancy from immigrant communities to respond to the census survey is part of the reason for Florida’s census undercount. As the nation prepares for 2030, policymakers must develop a strategy to better count every person or effectively restrict illegal immigrants from participation.
As the 2030 Census approaches, Florida TaxWatch encourages residents to take action to prepare by:
1) Staying up to date on census-related issues (see more from the Florida TaxWatch Census Institute),
2) Spreading awareness about the importance of decennial census,
3) Using your voice to encourage involvement by businesses and government officials, and
4) Investing in the community through philanthropic organizations or grassroot efforts that help residents complete their census surveys.
To learn more and access previous reports, please click here.
About Florida TaxWatch
As an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit government watchdog and taxpayer research institute, and the trusted “eyes and ears” of Florida taxpayers for more than 45 years, Florida TaxWatch (FTW) works to improve the productivity and accountability of Florida government. Its research recommends productivity enhancements and explains the statewide impact of fiscal and economic policies and practices on taxpayers and businesses. FTW is supported by its membership via voluntary, tax-deductible donations and private grants. Donations provide a solid, lasting foundation that has enabled FTW to bring about a more effective, responsive government that is more accountable to, and productive for, the taxpayers it has served since 1979. For more information, please visit www.floridataxwatch.org.
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