FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Friday, March 21, 2025
CONTACT: Christina Johnson, christina@on3pr.com, 850.391.5040
Tallahassee, Fla. – Today, Florida TaxWatch released Florida Economic Forecast: 2024 – 2030 / Q4 2024, economic commentary on the 2024 fourth quarter period. The data upon which these forecasts are based are provided through a partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group (REC Group), a research-based consulting firm that provides economic studies to help guide and inform business leaders and policymakers.
Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro said, “Florida’s economy has grown to nearly $1.5 trillion. Despite this impressive growth, Florida slipped from the fifteenth largest economy in the world to the sixteenth. Florida’s primary challenge came from its incredible success as a leading destination for residents, businesses, as well as tourists. Florida TaxWatch is focused on workforce and housing affordability, quality health care, and a multi-year funding process for critical water infrastructure that will help sustain Florida’s successful growth.”
Florida TaxWatch Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp said, “As Florida TaxWatch pours through this data each quarter, we have found several contributing factors to the growth of the economy, including population and net migration, employment, GDP and income growth, and tourism. While Florida began 2024 with strong economic growth trends that outpaced the rest of the country, it is imperative that we continue to closely monitor these factors every quarter and adjust government spending accordingly.”
The key takeaways from the report include the following outliers.
Population and Net Migration: Florida’s population is projected to increase by about 1.45 million people (to 24.8 million) from 2025 to 2030.The daily net migration is set to drop from 927 people in 2024 to 784 people in 2030, with overall population growth slowing from 1.5 percent to 1 percent. Raising living costs, higher taxes, and more frequent severe weather are promoting residents to leave, and U.S. Census data shows over 20 percent are moving to states like Georgia, Texas, or North Carolina.
Employment: The number of employed Floridians is projected to increase from almost 10 million in 2024 to 11.1 million in 2030. During this same period, Florida’s unemployment rate is projected to increase from 3.3 percent in 2024, slowly, to 4.1 percent in 2030. Unlike the 2024 Q3 forecast – where the unemployment rate was increasing until 2027 and then decreasing again, this forecast shows a consistent increase in the unemployment rate. The projected unemployment rate for 2025 as of Q42024 is 0.4 percent lower than reported in Q3 2024.
GDP and Income Growth: Florida had a real GDP growth rate of 3.6 percent in 2024; however, it is projected to decrease to 2.8 percent by 2030. The difference between the growth rate of Florida’s GDP and the real GDP is becoming smaller. This suggests that the rate of inflation is expected to decrease in the coming years. Following the projections from Q1 and Q2 of 2024, and unlike the Q3 2024 report, studies show that the spending capabilities of Floridians will increase before coming back to “normal” in the coming years.
Tourism: Florida’s tourism is projected to increase through 2030. The growth rate of visitors in the state is increasing until 2027, where it takes a dip, before rising again till 2030. In 2024, Florida had a record number of more than 145 million visitors to the state. Florida’s tourism industry is projected to continue its strong growth in 2025 and 2026, with more visitors expected each year. The dip in total visitor growth rate is a result of long-term reversion, with the rates returning to a growth rate which was normal to Florida before the pandemic.
Overall, Florida’s economy is now set to return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next five years, after experiencing high economic growth in the past three years. Additionally, Florida’s economic growth pattern matches or surpasses the national economic growth pattern in most economic indicators for the next five years.
To learn more and access the full commentary, including Florida TaxWatch’s Florida Economic Forecast 2023-28, Q1 2024, Florida Economic Forecast: 2023-2028 / Q2 2024 and Florida Economic Forecast: 2024 – 2030 / Q3 2024, please click here.
About Florida TaxWatch
As an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit government watchdog and taxpayer research institute, and the trusted “eyes and ears” of Florida taxpayers for more than 45 years, Florida TaxWatch (FTW) works to improve the productivity and accountability of Florida government. Its research recommends productivity enhancements and explains the statewide impact of fiscal and economic policies and practices on taxpayers and businesses. FTW is supported by its membership via voluntary, tax-deductible donations and private grants. Donations provide a solid, lasting foundation that has enabled FTW to bring about a more effective, responsive government that is more accountable to, and productive for, the taxpayers it has served since 1979. For more information, please visit www.floridataxwatch.org.
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