Budget Watch - Finally, Some Good Budget News

New General Revenue Estimates Add $2.1 Billion to Expected Collections

The General Revenue Estimating Conference (GREC) met on December 18 and 21 and increased Florida’s general revenue (GR) projections by $1.486 billion in the current budget year and $623 million in FY2021-22.1 This restores 39 percent of the $5.4 billion two-year reduction in the estimates adopted by the GREC last August.

During the first four months after the last GR estimate was made (August through November), actual collections have exceeded the estimate by $1 billion. It is expected that December will add significantly to that overage. Even more surprising, collections in both October and November exceeded collections in those months last year.

In arriving at its forecast, the Estimating Conference added the additional new money that was collected in the first half of FY2020-21 but decided to largely keep the old forecast for the second half of the year. The conferees could have added even more revenue to the estimate but felt there was too much downside risk to do so (a legitimate concern).