Bringing The Sunshine State Back: the Impact of COVID-19 Across Florida’s Economy & Options for Recovery

 

As Florida continues to deal with the constantly changing COVID-19 pandemic, questions remain as to how the state will reverse one of the worst recessions in history while at the same time maintaining prudent public health and safety measures. The difficulty lies in the unequal manner in which the virus has wreaked havoc on the state’s various economic sectors. Due to the varied effects, understanding the nature and scope of each sector’s unique pandemic challenges is crucial to providing substantive policy recommendations going forward.

The heavy reliance on tourism and real estate development to foster economic activity is a fundamental problem at the root of the state’s economy, a diversified economy will be imperative in launching Florida’s economy beyond the pandemic’s end and lessening the likelihood of a future economic recession of the same magnitude. The first of many steps to accomplish this goal of economic diversification will be to understand the complicated way in which the virus has affected Florida’s different sectors and provide relevant policy remedies in response.

 

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Florida Economic Forecast: 2025-2034

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Florida’s economy—valued at $1.76 trillion in Q1 2025—entered the year with strong momentum, but this Q3 2025 Florida TaxWatch forecast projects a return toward more “normal,” pre-pandemic growth rates over the next several years. While Florida’s population is still expected to climb to roughly 25.9 million by 2034, net migration is projected to cool as higher costs (housing, insurance, taxes) and other pressures weigh on in-migration.

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