Budget Watch - Budget Outlook Becoming Clearer

Last month’s Budget Watch from Florida TaxWatch examined the results of the latest General Revenue Estimating Conference and their impact on the next state budget. This report looks at the other estimates produced by this summer’s cycle of conferences, including those that affect trust fund receipts and estimate appropriations drivers, such as school enrollment and Medicaid caseloads.

To recap the new General Revenue (GR) estimates, the results of the August conference were mixed. In total, legislators will have $141.6 million less for next year’s (FY2015-16) budget than was anticipated based on the last estimates made in March.

Actual collections for FY2013-14 came in $106.7 million below the previous (March) estimate. The estimates for the current year (FY2014-15) were slightly increased by $49.2 million (0.2 percent) but the FY2015-16 estimate was reduced by $84.1 million (0.3 percent). Despite this downward revision, revenues have now recovered from the plunge brought on by the recession and steady growth is forecast for the next few years.