The TaxWatch Research Blog

Rising food and gas prices are a daily reminder that even though Florida’s economy is in a much better place than it was in March 2020, the economy is decidedly more expensive two years later in March 2022.

Often overlooked in favor of more eye-catching employment headlines such as unemployment rates and job creation numbers, job quitting rates are an indispensable part of understanding the overall economic recovery. Newly released national data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveal the number of people quitting their jobs in November 2021 hit a record high of 4.5 million—far above any other level on record since data first started being recorded. Since the summer of 2021, a collective 21.3 million individuals have quit their jobs across the nation.

For more than a year, Floridians have experienced first-hand the changes, challenges and, in many cases, the frustrations that arise when a pandemic affects global trade. 

Federal corporate income tax reform, which had the general aim of broadening the base and lowering the rate, has reduced the federal tax burden on many corporations. However, since Florida adopted most of the base expansion measures without a concurrent rate reduction, federal tax reform has resulted in increased taxes at the state level, even after subsequent state refunds and rate cuts.

As unexpected and unpredictable as COVID-19 has been, few could have predicted the housing boom that the pandemic ignited across the nation. The U.S. housing market—notoriously known for its role in the 2007-2009 Great Recession—defied expectations and experienced record price growth over the past year as demographic trends, government policies, and basic supply and demand all coalesced. In the short term, soaring home prices have been well-documented both analytically and anecdotally.

The massive amount of federal funding provided in the six stimulus acts provides an unprecedented opportunity to improve Florida and fund programs and infrastructure that have had long-standing backlogs with few past feasible opportunities to address to this degree.

Just as the nation was entering a new phase of the COVID-19 pandemic—one where vaccination rates were rising and pent-up demand for travel started to unleash during the summer—the contagious delta variant exposed tourism’s lingering economic vulnerability. 

Shifting demographics as the Baby Boomer generation exits the labor force will also fuel broader changes for the working population. For these reasons, the needs of the future workforce place a premium on human skills development—equipping individuals with the requisite skills to be prepared for a workforce full of disruption and displacement. Increasingly, postsecondary institutions and industry will both be crucial to training workers for an ever-evolving economy.

The third article in our Beyond the Pandemic series... In many ways, Florida's workforce looks starkly different from when it first entered the pandemic over a year ago. Challenges with controlling the spread of COVID-19 precipitated the widespread use of remote work and other digital formats across the state. These changes accelerated workforce trends that were present before COVID-19 (such as automation) and now foreshadow a future workforce that will constantly face disruption and displacement.

FOR STUDENTS, LEARNING IS A CUMULATIVE PROCESS WHEREBY KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS ARE DEVELOPED OVER SUCCESSIVE YEARS. As such, any sudden and large disruption to in-person instruction can have a cascading effect on student learning and life outcomes beyond formal education. Due to COVID-19, the unprecedented disruption in learning, especially for K-12 students, raises concerns about what unfinished learning may mean for academic achievement, mental health, and social development in the future. So what happens now?

THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED THE HEALTH CARE LANDSCAPE ACROSS THE U.S. From ushering in broader adoption of telehealth services to increasing the incidence of behavioral health issues, the pandemic has created long-term changes and challenges that will likely persist beyond the official end of the public health emergency.

In the past year, the COVID-19 pandemic has greatly changed the world, with much of the country implementing various measures to minimize the negative health and economic impacts of widespread infection. State responses to the pandemic have been diverse and complex, with some instituting strict restrictions on businesses and others rolling back restrictions at a faster pace. At the same time, vaccine rollouts are accelerating, and state economic recoveries seem to be on varied paths with some approaching pre-pandemic levels of employment faster than others. The present analysis offers a cursory look at the relationship between state COVID-19 restrictions and their respective economic recoveries by running a preliminary correlation test between the two measures.

As the federal government continues to negotiate another round of fiscal stimulus, chances are you have heard the term “K-shaped recovery” thrown around. The issue became a common talking point during last year’s presidential election as some candidates discussed their plans to heal the economy. But what exactly is a K-shaped recovery and what does it have to do with the economy?

AS FLORIDA APPROACHES THE ONE-YEAR MARK SINCE THE STATE REPORTED ITS FIRST POSITIVE COVID-19 CASE, Florida’s recovery picture seems to be a mixed bag. The state closed out 2020 on an optimistic note as unemployment inched downward to 6.1 percent from a high of 13.8 percent in April 2020, but as January 2021 drew to a close, first time jobless benefit claims rose by more than 71,000 across the state.

As Florida continues to deal with the constantly changing COVID-19 pandemic, questions remain as to how the state will reverse one of the worst recessions in history while at the same time maintaining prudent public health and safety measures. The difficulty lies in the unequal manner in which the virus has wreaked havoc on the state’s various economic sectors. Due to the varied effects, understanding the nature and scope of each sector’s unique pandemic challenges is crucial to providing substantive policy recommendations going forward.

As the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to be felt by Florida’s businesses, non-profits, schools, colleges and universities, and healthcare providers, employers of all types are fearful of keeping their business open or reopening their business because of the threat of opportunistic, predatory, and expensive litigation resulting from alleged exposure to COVID-19 when they are taking proper precautions. 

 AS WE CLOSE OUT A TUMULTUOUS YEAR for Florida, defined by COVID-19 and its resulting disruptions to everyday life, we consider what may lie ahead for Florida’s economy in 2021. If there’s one thing assured for next year, it is that much economic uncertainty will persist against the backdrop of a constantly changing pandemic. Yet with several promising vaccines on the horizon and gradually improving labor market conditions, Florida looks poised to undergo the slow but steady process of economic rebuilding over the coming year.

Whether purchasing a car, picking up coffee, or paying a contractor, consumers play an important role in the U.S. economy, where personal consumption represents around 70 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product. It comes by no surprise, then, that consumer optimism acts as an important indicator for the overall strength of the

economy.

Application surges during the COVID-19 pandemic have exposed the shortcomings of the current state-administered, federal safety net programs, especially the Reemployment Assistance (Unemployment Insurance) program. This report explores Florida’s opportunity to implement more efficient and cost-effective business processes, thus reducing the size of government, saving the taxpayers money, and improving service delivery to Floridians in need.

College football teams serve as important economic drivers in their local communities.

Made up of public policy professionals, tax and budget experts, and leaders of both small and large businesses, the Task Force was established to identify those areas of state tax policy that could be addressed both immediately and in the long term to provide Florida’s businesses—and their employees and customers—appropriate relief and assistance.