The General Revenue (GR) Estimating Conference met on January 23 to adopt Florida’s latest GR forecast—the estimate that tells lawmakers how much is available for the next state budget. The updated forecast adds $572.5 million to the amount available for the upcoming budget year, but while meaningful, it amounts to only about one percent of total GR collections.
Actual collections exceeded the prior estimate by $486.9 million during the first five months of FY2025–26, and the Conference increased the current-year estimate by $502.5 million and the FY2026–27 estimate by $70.0 million. The gains are driven largely by higher expected sales tax collections, Indian gaming receipts, and earnings on investments, while the corporate income tax forecast was reduced by $805.5 million over two years—signaling a notable shift after years of strong performance.
Florida TaxWatch notes that this improved outlook is good news, but not game changing, as recurring budget pressures and long-range shortfall warnings remain. With thousands of member project requests and billions in potential earmarks, Florida TaxWatch urges lawmakers to rein in local project spending and take a hard look at unnecessary recurring costs to avoid deeper deficits in the years ahead.
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