This Florida TaxWatch commentary analyzes the diverging trajectories of the U.S. and Florida labor markets amid inflationary pressures and Federal Reserve interventions. Nationally, job openings declined from 10.2 million (6.2% rate) in August 2022 to 9.6 million (5.8% rate) in August 2023, signaling gradual cooling. Key sectors like Professional/Business Services (-198,000 openings) and Healthcare (-130,000) drove reductions, though separations remain elevated at 5.7 million nationwide, with 3.6 million being voluntary quits.

Florida presents a contrasting picture:

• Maintains a 2.8% unemployment rate (vs. 3.8% nationally)
• Job openings grew 6.2% year-over-year, far outpacing payroll employment growth (3.2%)
• 2.0 job openings per unemployed person in 2023, exceeding the national ratio of 1.5
• High quit rates persist, with 284,000 resignations (69% of separations) in April 2023

The report highlights risks for Florida’s tourism-dependent economy, particularly in Accommodation/Food Services, where wage pressures threaten business costs. Despite Federal Reserve rate hikes (5.5%), Florida’s labor market remains "hot," fueled by population growth (+1.9% in 2022) and domestic migration. However, slowing wage growth for new hires (from 12% in 2022 to near 0% in 2023) and a gradual decline in job openings suggest an impending cooldown.

Florida TaxWatch emphasizes adaptive strategies for employers and policymakers to navigate shifting dynamics, leveraging the state’s economic resilience while mitigating inflation risks. The full report includes detailed analysis of labor force participation, demographic trends, and sector-specific recommendations.