Executive Summary

Florida's economy, valued at $1.76 trillion, entered 2025 on a strong footing but is projected to see its growth moderate to pre-pandemic levels over the next decade. This forecast from Florida TaxWatch indicates a shift from the high growth of recent years to a more sustainable, albeit slower, pace. While the state's population is expected to increase by 2.3 million by 2034, the rate of new residents moving to Florida is projected to decline, influenced by rising living costs.

Key Forecast Highlights (2025-2034):

• Slowing Population Growth: While Florida's population will continue to grow, daily net migration is expected to decrease from 891 in 2025 to 705 by 2034, reflecting a cooling growth rate.
• Unemployment Fluctuations: The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.1 percent in 2025 to a peak of 4.5 percent in 2027, before gradually declining to 4.0 percent by 2034.
• Moderating Economic Output: Florida’s real GDP growth is forecast at 2.4 percent for 2025, but is expected to slow to 1.2 percent by 2034 as the economy normalizes.
• Tourism Trends: After a record year, tourism is expected to experience a slight dip in 2025 before seeing modest growth, with long-term projections showing a return to a more standard, pre-pandemic growth trajectory.
• Income Growth Outpacing Nation: While income growth in Florida is slightly below the national average in 2025, it is projected to surpass the U.S. rate in the following years.

Overall, Florida's economy is transitioning to a more stable growth phase. The findings suggest that while the boom of the post-pandemic years is easing, the state's economic foundations remain solid, mirroring broader national trends.