OH, SNAP! Federal Policy Changes Threaten the Stability of Florida's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Cost Savings, Federal Government, Health Care

Administered by the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA)’s Food and Nutrition Service (FNS), the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) provides funds to help low-income households afford low-cost, nutritious meals. In July 2025, President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 (the OBBB Act), tightening SNAP policies that determine eligibility, benefits, and program administration. Florida TaxWatch undertakes this independent research project to better understand how the upcoming changes in SNAP requirements will impact Florida’s budget and its ability to provide much needed food assistance to needy Floridians.

LUCA Primer: The First Step In Preparing for the 2030 Census

LUCA Primer: The First Step in Preparing for the 2030 Census explains how Florida’s statistically significant undercount of approximately 750,000 residents in the 2020 Census cost the state an additional U.S. House seat, up to $21 billion in federal funds, and weakened the quality of the data that businesses and community leaders rely on for planning.

Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Florida Goodwill Association

FY 2024

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development, Workforce Development, ROI Study

Goodwill’s Economic and Workforce Impact in Florida: FY 2024 quantifies how the Florida Goodwill Association and its nine territories convert donated goods and mission-driven operations into jobs, higher earnings, and stronger local economies across the state. Using FY 2024 operational, employment, and capital spending data and the IMPLAN input-output model, Florida TaxWatch estimates that Goodwill generated $1.52 billion in total economic output, added $893.9 million to Florida’s GDP, and supported 21,471 jobs statewide.

New Labor Data Shows Weaker Labor Market Than Previously Expected

/ Categories: Research, Workforce Development, Blog

Since January 2025, the federal interest rate has remained unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. The rates have been steady in hopes of curbing inflation and bringing it down to two percent, as unemployment numbers were not concerning until now. The latest revision data, however, will likely push the Federal Reserve to cut rates in their next meeting this month to 4.00 to 4.25 percent.

Interdisciplinary Pain Management As a Means to Help Address Solvency of the State Employees' Health Insurance Trust Fund

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Health Care, Insurance

Interdisciplinary Pain Management as a Means to Help Address Solvency of the State Employees’ Health Insurance Trust Fund examines how treating chronic pain through integrated, team-based care can both improve outcomes for State Group Insurance Program (SGIP) members and lower overall claims paid by Florida’s State Employees’ Health Insurance Trust Fund. With the Trust Fund projected to face a nearly $1.7 billion shortfall by FY 2029-30 without action, Florida TaxWatch outlines a pragmatic path that reduces costs by treating pain more effectively—not just shifting them to employees.

Florida Economic Forecast 2025 - 2034

Q2 2025

/ Categories: Research, Economic Forecast

Florida's economy, valued at $1.76 trillion, entered 2025 on a strong footing but is projected to see its growth moderate to pre-pandemic levels over the next decade. This forecast from Florida TaxWatch indicates a shift from the high growth of recent years to a more sustainable, albeit slower, pace. While the state's population is expected to increase by 2.3 million by 2034, the rate of new residents moving to Florida is projected to decline, influenced by rising living costs.

Options to Eliminate or Reduce the Property Tax Burden on Florida Homeowners

/ Categories: Research, Education, Housing Affordability, Taxes, Local Government

Florida's property tax system is at a critical juncture, with total levies surging by 108% over the last decade, far exceeding the combined rate of population growth and inflation. This rapid increase, generating $55 billion in 2024 for local governments, has intensified the financial strain on homeowners and raised fundamental questions about the nature of property ownership, which currently resembles a form of "perpetual rent" to the government. This report from Florida TaxWatch analyzes the current landscape and explores five distinct options for reform, ranging from the complete elimination of property taxes for homeowners to more immediate statutory changes aimed at increasing transparency and accountability.

Trends in the Cost of Construction Materials

/ Categories: Research, Manufacturing, Public Infrastructure & Utilities

Construction is a cornerstone of Florida's economy, contributing $97 billion (5.7 percent) to the state's GDP in 2024. However, rising material costs are presenting significant challenges to the industry, impacting everything from large-scale infrastructure projects to residential home building and affordability for Florida taxpayers. This report from Florida TaxWatch examines the national and statewide trends driving these price increases and their potential consequences.

The Taxpayer's Guide to Florida's FY2025-26 State Budget

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps, Taxpayer Guide

Florida TaxWatch’s The Taxpayers’ Guide to Florida’s FY2025-26 State Budget explains the Legislature’s $114.8 billion spending plan (after $376 million in line-item vetoes)—a 3.2% decrease from FY2024-25—while maintaining $12.6 billion in reserves. General Revenue (GR) spending rises by $556 million, and the recurring GR base increases by $1.9 billion, even as total positions fall to 111,886 (-1,871).

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals

/ Categories: Research, Census Institute, Census, Federal Government

Apportionment Changes Amid Policy Proposals explains how Florida’s 2020 Census undercount—about 750,000 residents (3.48%)—reduced the state’s political representation and likely cost billions of dollars in federal funding over the decade. The report examines what Florida stood to gain if the count had been accurate and how proposed changes to who is counted could affect future apportionment.

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Pay for Performance Contracting

State contracts typically referred to as either performance-based contracting or pay for performance (PFP) are specially formulated so that contracted entities are paid for the outcomes or results of their work, and not just the services that are provided.
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Discretion on the Bench

This report recommends the implementation of a “Judicial Safety Valve” that would give judges the discretion to deviate from mandatory minimums for low-level offenders, but maintain the rights of victims, offenders, their attorneys, and the state to have input on sentencing decisions at sentencing hearings.
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Florida is Still a Donor State

Over the years, Florida TaxWatch has produced several reports examining how Florida fares, relative to other states, in receiving grants and aid from the federal government. Consistent with our past research, this new analysis shows Florida continues to receive far less than its fair share of federal grant dollars.
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Budget Watch - Projected Shortfall Requires Action

The 2017 Legislature will be facing a very tight budget year. After a string of three straight years with projected budget surpluses ranging from $336 million to $846 million, it is now estimated that during the next legislative session there will be just enough money to fund a continuation budget for FY2017-18. What’s more, significant budget shortfalls loom in subsequent years.
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2016 Voter Guide - November Edition

This edition of the 2016 Voter Guide details the four amendments on the November 8 ballot. We have provided a notes sheet on page 30 of this Guide, where you can jot down anything you want to remember about the amendments, and take it with you to the polls.

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Ideas in Action - Strategic Planning for State Agencies

Every year, Florida public agencies are required to develop so-called strategic plans. But instead of being strategic and linking to adding measurable value to Floridians, these efforts shift to the planning of tactics and assume that existing agency goals are useful or even correct. And each year we are often disappointed with what our agencies deliver to our citizens. This disappointment comes from agencies not asking and answering the right questions.
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