Despite Uncertainty and Significant Downside Risk, Florida’s New General Revenue Forecast Adds $1.3 Billion to the Money Available for the New Budget

Budget Watch | March 2025

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps

Florida TaxWatch’s Budget Watch report for March 2025 examines the state’s updated General Revenue forecast, which adds approximately $1.3 billion to the money available for the new state budget. After a long streak of collections exceeding estimates, January’s shortfall signals a shift amid mounting economic uncertainty.

More States Are Using State-Level Tax Credits to Address Workforce and Affordable Housing Deficits

Florida Should Consider These Incentives

/ Categories: Research, Housing Affordability

This Florida TaxWatch report highlights a severe affordable housing crisis in Florida, where rising housing costs and a limited supply of affordable units place significant financial and social burdens on low-income families and essential workers. It advocates for the adoption of state-level tax credits to supplement federal programs, thereby incentivizing the construction of affordable housing, stimulating local economies, and reducing public costs.

An Independent Assessment of the Economic Impacts of South Florida’s St. Thomas University on Florida’s Economy

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development, Education, ROI Study

St. Thomas University (STU) plays a large role in Florida’s economy, fostering workforce development and economic mobility, particularly for underrepresented communities. This Florida TaxWatch ROI report evaluates STU’s impact, highlighting its contributions to job creation, income growth, and return on investment. With record-breaking enrollment, a diverse student body, and strong financial stability, STU generates over $1.5 billion in economic output and supports more than 8,500 jobs. Every $1 spent on STU results in $21.50 of economic output.

Enhancing Lives, Ensuring Accountability: The Value of Florida’s Behavioral Health Managing Entities

Tenth Year Review

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Health Care

Florida’s Behavioral Health Managing Entities (BHMEs) are at the heart of an innovative, community-based network delivering critical mental health and substance use services across the state. This report’s summary reveals how BHMEs efficiently coordinate a vast network of providers with minimal overhead—ensuring accessible, continuous care for vulnerable populations—while highlighting the risk that stagnant operational funding poses to their long-term sustainability. It ultimately recommends boosting operational funding from 3% to 5% to maintain the system’s effectiveness and guide future policy decisions.

Florida Economic Forecast: Q3 2024

A Florida TaxWatch Economic Commentary

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development, Economic Forecast

Florida's Economic Forecast 2024–2030 offers a concise look at Florida's future economic landscape. The report, built on REC Group data, outlines how the state is expected to continue growing—approaching a nearly $1.5 trillion economy—while highlighting shifts in population, net migration, and employment. It also examines changes in GDP, personal income, and the influence of tourism, comparing these trends to broader national economic indicators. Overall, the forecast serves as a valuable guide for understanding the opportunities and challenges Florida may face as it transitions into a more normalized, post-pandemic economic environment.

The Consequences of a Census Undercount on Florida’s Healthcare Funding

/ Categories: Research, Census Institute, Census, Health Care

Florida’s 2020 Census undercount has put billions of federal healthcare dollars at risk. With 750,000 residents uncounted, the state is projected to lose up to $21 billion in funding for Medicaid, CHIP, and other essential programs. This miscount impacts hospital planning, healthcare access, and federal funding formulas, costing Florida taxpayers $2.3 billion annually in lost Medicaid funds alone.

Solvency of the State Employees' Health Insurance Trust Fund

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Economic Development, Health Care

Florida TaxWatch’s latest report examines the financial solvency of the State Employees' Health Insurance Trust Fund, which faces rising costs and potential deficits in the coming years. Despite a projected $652.7 million cash balance for FY 2024-25, increasing healthcare expenses could lead to a $1.5 billion deficit by FY 2028-29. The report recommends increasing employee contributions to align with those of other large employers, potentially saving the state $446 million annually. Proactive policy changes are urged to ensure the fund’s sustainability amid future budget challenges.

Social Determinants of Health: Economic Stability

This report, the fifth installment in Florida TaxWatch’s five-part Social Determinants of Health series, examines how economic stability—steady employment, adequate income, food security, and housing stability—affects health outcomes. It highlights the health disparities faced by low-income families and advocates for policies promoting job access, affordable housing, and proper nutrition to improve public health across Florida.

Teaching Every Child to Swim Saves Thousands of Lives from Needless Drownings and Taxpayers Millions

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Education, Energy & Environment, Every Child a Swimmer

This Florida TaxWatch report highlights drowning as a leading cause of death for children in the U.S., particularly in Florida. It stresses the importance of teaching children water safety, noting that swimming lessons can reduce drowning risk by 88%. Despite recent legislative efforts, more actions are needed, such as offering drowning prevention videos to new parents in hospitals and increasing safety measures for at-risk children, including those with autism. The report calls for continued policy efforts to prevent drowning-related tragedies and save lives.

More Than a Store: The Fiscal and Economic Impacts of Goodwill in Florida

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development

This report highlights the substantial fiscal and economic impacts of Goodwill in Florida, contributing nearly $1.2 billion to the state's economy in 2023. Goodwill's nine territories across Florida delivered impactful programs, including career readiness, community services, and re-entry support. These initiatives not only created over 14,000 jobs but also added $481.6 million in personal income and $652 million to Florida's GDP. Goodwill's model of investing donations directly into its programs demonstrates its dedication to fostering workforce development and enhancing local economies.

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Broward Bond Oversight Committee Settles In

If the August 29, 2016 meeting is any indication, the Broward Bond Oversight Committee is getting more and more comfortable in its role of overseeing the implementation of the $800 million general obligation bond program approved by Broward voters to renovate and improve Broward’s public schools. The issues raised and questions asked by Committee members reflected a thorough and careful review of reports provided by District staff and by Florida TaxWatch.
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Flu IQ - Go ahead and take a shot

Across the nation, influenza infections result in tens of thousands of hospitalizations and thousands of deaths annually.  It is estimated that over 1.3 million Floridians will catch the flu this year, resulting in 2.3 million lost days of work and $307 million in lost productivity.
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Presidential Candidates Need to Get Serious About the Federal Debt

With tomorrow being Election Day, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have been ramping up their campaign efforts to swing voters into their camps. Both have been traveling to vital battleground states, bringing along their economic messages that they hope can turn out voters to the polls.
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Budget Watch - The Zika Virus Will Place Additional Strain on the Next State Budget

In addition to the serious public health risk for Floridians, the Zika virus is also creating risk for the already tight state budget outlook for next year.

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Zoonoses Uncaged!

Given our relationships with animals, would it surprise you to know that even mundane exposure to pets, livestock, wildlife, and insects has the potential to result in a zoonotic infection, and that there are currently 868 known zoonotic diseases?
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Q1 2017 Broward Schools SMART Program Report Review

Presented to the Bond Oversight Committee on November 14, 2016, this report examines the SMART program quarterly report for Q1 of FY2017.

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ARNPs Help Florida's Patients, and its Economy

An overwhelming body of evidence shows that Advanced Registered Nurse Practitioners (ARNPs) provide safe and effective care at a reduced cost.
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Sentencing Doesn't Require Psychic Powers

As crime in Florida continues to decline and state prison populations continue to exceed 100,000 inmates, policymakers and practitioners are all seeking to mitigate corrections cost by opting for less costly, but just as effective, alternatives.
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How Attractive is Florida's Business Tax Climate?

Like beauty, the attractiveness of a state’s business climate is in the eye of the beholder. There are many measures of states’ tax and business climates.
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Time to Even the Playing Field for Small Businesses

Small businesses truly are this nation’s backbone. They account for 94 percent of all the country’s businesses and are owned by a diverse array of Americans from all backgrounds. The ability to build a small business is the cornerstone of the American dream.

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