Despite Uncertainty and Significant Downside Risk, Florida’s New General Revenue Forecast Adds $1.3 Billion to the Money Available for the New Budget

Budget Watch | March 2025

/ Categories: Research, Budget/Approps

Florida TaxWatch’s Budget Watch report for March 2025 examines the state’s updated General Revenue forecast, which adds approximately $1.3 billion to the money available for the new state budget. After a long streak of collections exceeding estimates, January’s shortfall signals a shift amid mounting economic uncertainty.

More States Are Using State-Level Tax Credits to Address Workforce and Affordable Housing Deficits

Florida Should Consider These Incentives

/ Categories: Research, Housing Affordability

This Florida TaxWatch report highlights a severe affordable housing crisis in Florida, where rising housing costs and a limited supply of affordable units place significant financial and social burdens on low-income families and essential workers. It advocates for the adoption of state-level tax credits to supplement federal programs, thereby incentivizing the construction of affordable housing, stimulating local economies, and reducing public costs.

An Independent Assessment of the Economic Impacts of South Florida’s St. Thomas University on Florida’s Economy

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development, Education, ROI Study

St. Thomas University (STU) plays a large role in Florida’s economy, fostering workforce development and economic mobility, particularly for underrepresented communities. This Florida TaxWatch ROI report evaluates STU’s impact, highlighting its contributions to job creation, income growth, and return on investment. With record-breaking enrollment, a diverse student body, and strong financial stability, STU generates over $1.5 billion in economic output and supports more than 8,500 jobs. Every $1 spent on STU results in $21.50 of economic output.

Enhancing Lives, Ensuring Accountability: The Value of Florida’s Behavioral Health Managing Entities

Tenth Year Review

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Health Care

Florida’s Behavioral Health Managing Entities (BHMEs) are at the heart of an innovative, community-based network delivering critical mental health and substance use services across the state. This report’s summary reveals how BHMEs efficiently coordinate a vast network of providers with minimal overhead—ensuring accessible, continuous care for vulnerable populations—while highlighting the risk that stagnant operational funding poses to their long-term sustainability. It ultimately recommends boosting operational funding from 3% to 5% to maintain the system’s effectiveness and guide future policy decisions.

Florida Economic Forecast: Q3 2024

A Florida TaxWatch Economic Commentary

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development, Economic Forecast

Florida's Economic Forecast 2024–2030 offers a concise look at Florida's future economic landscape. The report, built on REC Group data, outlines how the state is expected to continue growing—approaching a nearly $1.5 trillion economy—while highlighting shifts in population, net migration, and employment. It also examines changes in GDP, personal income, and the influence of tourism, comparing these trends to broader national economic indicators. Overall, the forecast serves as a valuable guide for understanding the opportunities and challenges Florida may face as it transitions into a more normalized, post-pandemic economic environment.

The Consequences of a Census Undercount on Florida’s Healthcare Funding

/ Categories: Research, Census Institute, Census, Health Care

Florida’s 2020 Census undercount has put billions of federal healthcare dollars at risk. With 750,000 residents uncounted, the state is projected to lose up to $21 billion in funding for Medicaid, CHIP, and other essential programs. This miscount impacts hospital planning, healthcare access, and federal funding formulas, costing Florida taxpayers $2.3 billion annually in lost Medicaid funds alone.

Solvency of the State Employees' Health Insurance Trust Fund

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Economic Development, Health Care

Florida TaxWatch’s latest report examines the financial solvency of the State Employees' Health Insurance Trust Fund, which faces rising costs and potential deficits in the coming years. Despite a projected $652.7 million cash balance for FY 2024-25, increasing healthcare expenses could lead to a $1.5 billion deficit by FY 2028-29. The report recommends increasing employee contributions to align with those of other large employers, potentially saving the state $446 million annually. Proactive policy changes are urged to ensure the fund’s sustainability amid future budget challenges.

Social Determinants of Health: Economic Stability

This report, the fifth installment in Florida TaxWatch’s five-part Social Determinants of Health series, examines how economic stability—steady employment, adequate income, food security, and housing stability—affects health outcomes. It highlights the health disparities faced by low-income families and advocates for policies promoting job access, affordable housing, and proper nutrition to improve public health across Florida.

Teaching Every Child to Swim Saves Thousands of Lives from Needless Drownings and Taxpayers Millions

/ Categories: Research, Cost Savings, Education, Energy & Environment, Every Child a Swimmer

This Florida TaxWatch report highlights drowning as a leading cause of death for children in the U.S., particularly in Florida. It stresses the importance of teaching children water safety, noting that swimming lessons can reduce drowning risk by 88%. Despite recent legislative efforts, more actions are needed, such as offering drowning prevention videos to new parents in hospitals and increasing safety measures for at-risk children, including those with autism. The report calls for continued policy efforts to prevent drowning-related tragedies and save lives.

More Than a Store: The Fiscal and Economic Impacts of Goodwill in Florida

/ Categories: Research, Economic Development

This report highlights the substantial fiscal and economic impacts of Goodwill in Florida, contributing nearly $1.2 billion to the state's economy in 2023. Goodwill's nine territories across Florida delivered impactful programs, including career readiness, community services, and re-entry support. These initiatives not only created over 14,000 jobs but also added $481.6 million in personal income and $652 million to Florida's GDP. Goodwill's model of investing donations directly into its programs demonstrates its dedication to fostering workforce development and enhancing local economies.

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2022 Taxpayer Independence Day

2022 Taxpayer Independence Day

On Thursday, April 14, Florida TaxWatch joins the taxpayers in our state in celebrating Florida Taxpayer Independence Day 2022. On that day, Floridians are finally earning money for themselves–not for the tax collector. This symbolic date assumes that every dollar earned since January 1 goes to pay federal, state, and local tax obligations. This measure of tax burden is based on the relative size of all taxes paid in Florida to our state’s total personal income. In 2022, for the average Florida household, paying its taxes takes 103 out of 365 days, nearly three and a half months.

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The Economic and Fiscal Significance of the U.S. Census and American Community Survey

The Economic and Fiscal Significance of the U.S. Census and American Community Survey

The once-in-a-lifetime pandemic disrupted the 2020 Census— the 24th in U.S. history—delaying field operations and hampering the public’s ability to respond. This report underscores the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on 2020 Census data collection efforts, including disruptions to the ACS, and highlights how this impacts federal funding and critical decision-making among policymakers and business leaders alike.

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Benefits Cliffs—At the Cliffs Edge

Benefits Cliffs—At the Cliffs Edge

This report analyzes public safety net programs and benefits cliffs, a scenario in which a small increase in wages results in the partial or total loss of public benefits. Benefits cliffs occur when a marginal wage increase results in the partial or total loss of public benefits for different public assistance programs. For illustrative purposes, imagine a mother earns a $1,000 annual raise but loses more than $8,000 in childcare assistance—a cliff effect occurs. 

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2022 Budget Turkey Watch

2022 Budget Turkey Watch

The $112.1 billion budget passed by the Florida Legislature for FY2022-23 contains 166 appropriations items worth $281.0 million qualifying as Budget Turkeys. These are only a portion of the record-setting more than 1,200 member projects in the new budget worth $2.8 billion. In addition, the Legislature created a new program to allow members to request at least $80 million in additional local projects from the federal State Fiscal Recovery Fund.

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Tony Carvajal on Broward Benchmarks - State of the County

On Wednesday, May 4, 2022 Tony Carvajal (Executive Vice President, Florida TaxWatch) will address the Broward Workshop at their 14th Annual State of the County Forum. 

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